<p class="western" align="justify">Water conflicts generally stem from an imbalance between water demand and availability; as such, they are often studied as a result of meteorological droughts – that is, a lack of precipitation or streamflow. By shifting water availability from wet winters to dry summers, when demand peaks, we hypothesized that snow water resources represent a crucial precursor of this imbalance, and thus play an important, but unexplored role in escalating drought-related water crises and conflict. To shed light on the nexus between snow droughts and increased water challenges, we draw lessons from the extraordinarily warm, dry, and prolonged 2021-2022 snow drought in the Italian Alps, from the consequent spring-to-summer water deficit, and from the relative seeds of conflict. To this end, <span lang="it-IT">w</span>e compared the spatial distribution of snow water resources deficit with the distribution and type of municipal mandatory water restrictions, under the assumption that the former are proxies of a future deficit in availability, while the latter are proxies of an imbalance between this availability and needs. We found initial evidence that the location and magnitude of the deficit in snow water resources observed across the Italian Alps in winter 2022 (-60% or more at peak accumulation) did result in seeds of institutional conflicts later in spring and summer. These findings can aid institutions and policymakers in understanding the mechanisms behind emerging water conflicts and their implications, and so design ad-hoc water policies, especially in a warming climate.</p> <p class="western" align="justify"> </p>

<p>Ensuring that early warning information is effectively translated into anticipatory/ early actions is a pressing challenge that requires partnership and coordination of multiple actors at different territorial levels. This issue has been investigated in the framework of the IPA Floods and Fires program (https://www.ipaff.eu/) for the Western Balkans and Türkiye in 7 pilot studies. An operational approach has been developed to guide key institutions in planning anticipatory actions in the event of a flood based on early warnings, considering EWS in its full length of value cycle.</p> <p>The approach is grounded on the concept that an Early Warning System (EWS) should be an “integrated system” comprising hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities, systems and processes” (WMO, 2016, UNDRR, 2009). A system approach enables to intersect and interlink all the elements and actors of EWS at different territorial levels, including local administrations, which are typically the first responder in case of a flood due to their proximity to at-risk communities.</p> <p>The approach consisted in few key steps part of gradual capacity development process. The first important step was the context analysis at Country level carried out through questionnaires, scoping tools on EWS, and interactive workshops, which informed a comprehensive stakeholder mapping, guided the constitution of multi-territorial and multi-sectorial working groups (from National Hydrometeorological Services, to River basin and water agencies and civil protection authorities at all the levels). The second step was the design and implementation of a Command Post Exercise (CPX) project to test coordination and communication among all the EWS actors, as well as the activation of the emergency plans and procedures in response to warnings from the national to the local level. This step was instrumental to strengthen inter-agency familiarity and functional capacities of the system, to identify barriers for effective operations, and raise awareness on strategies for EW-EA linkage. The third and final step of the proposed approach consisted in a lessons learned analysis, recognizing gaps and capacities to be strengthened</p> <p>The implementation of this approach in 7 pilot cases in Western Balkans and Türkiye has highlighted several benefits and challenges, including the effort to achieve a broader and regional perspective by transcending country-specific results. Specifically, the lesson learnt analysis outlined the base of a set of criteria, built on the regional experience, for a general and co-designed path to move towards the integration of early warnings into emergency response planning and civil protection actions. Key learnings and discussions among the involved parties in the approach supported the identification of preliminary recommendations and effective practices. The implementation of pilot cases highlighted that engaging local administrations and establishing cross-institutional partnerships are essential for effective preparedness and the overall strength of the system, confirming that an EWS can be completely hampered by its weakest component.</p>

<p>Risk associated with weather-induced hazards is worldwide continuously increasing due to the increase of urbanisation and exposed settlements in flood-prone areas. This asks for the implementation of more effective mitigation strategies, able at the same time to strengthen the community resilience at different territorial levels.</p><p>This study aims to propose an innovative methodology to better understand, study and analyse the vulnerability and capacity of exposed elements in order to improve the Italian Civil Protection (CP) Plans and consequently the public preparedness and the self-protective response at community level. This can support better mitigation strategies design and their relationship with decision making processes at local level.</p><p>The methodology assumes a reference scenario of a “flash flood” – that requires an immediate and efficient response of the civil protection system – and develops starting from the regulatory reference framework of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC).</p><p>The main assumption of this study is that for CP purposes risk should be estimated by considering all its components of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity; in addition, exposed elements must be characterised by reference to the local context through the active involvement of population, administrations and stakeholders.</p><p>In our methodology, the risk estimation has been enriched quantitative scale with information gained by the stakeholder involvement – both on hazard and on vulnerability and capacity of the considered exposed assets. These data constituted the input variables of the model for formalising the procedures and the actions to be undertaken, that by so doing are more suited to the territory.  </p><p>Thanks to the participative process, scientific analysis can be enriched with local knowledge, resulting in a detailed mapping and characterisation of elements to be considered in the definition of risk mitigation strategies, additionally strengthening coordination and collaboration between institutions and citizens and then community resilience.</p><p>A case study has been developed on the scholastic framework of Serra Riccò, a small municipality in the hinterland of Genoa.</p><p>The result was a detailed mapping of schools – based on accurate vulnerability and capacity data – which provides decisions support in actions, interventions and resources sorting thank to an actual and shared representation of the territory.</p><p>The process has helped the whole community to understand the importance of developing shared mitigation strategies. This constitutes the starting point for the development of a community vision on strategies to face with risk, ensuring the improvement in risk mitigation and management effectiveness, thus bolstering community resilience.</p>