This study has two goals. The first is to explain the geo-environmental determinants of the accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 in Italy that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats having accelerated viral infectivity in society. Using data on N=55 Italian province capitals, and data of infected individuals at as of April 7 th , 2020, results reveal that the accelerate and vast diffusion of COVID-19 in North Italy has a high association with air pollution of cities measured with days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 micrometers or less in diameter) or ozone in previous years. In particular, hinterland cities with average higher number of days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (and a low intensity of wind speed) have a very high number of infected people on 7 th April, 2020 (arithmetic mean about 2,200 infected, with average polluted days greater than 80), than coastal cities also having days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 or ozone but with high intensity of wind speed (arithmetic mean about 944.70 infected individuals, with about 60 average polluted days); moreover, cities having more than 100 days of air pollution (exceeding the limits set for PM10), they have a very high average number of infected people (about 3,350 infected individuals, 7 th April 2020), whereas cities having less than 100 days of air pollution, they have a lower average number of infected individuals (about 1014). The findings here also suggest that to minimize the impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year in which Italian provincial capitals can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological conditions, is about 48 days. Moreover, results here reveal that the explanatory variable of air pollution in cities under study seems to be a more important predictor in the initial phase of diffusion (on 17 th March 2020, b1 = 1.27, p<0.001) than interpersonal contacts (b2 = 0.31, p<0.05). In the second phase of maturity of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, air pollution reduces intensity (on 7 th April, 2020 with b'1 = .81, p<0.001) also because of indirect effect of lockdown, whereas coefficient of transmission by interpersonal contacts has stability (b'2 = 0.31, p<0.01). This result reveals that accelerated transmissions dynamics of COVID-19 is due to mainly to the mechanism of "air pollution-to-human transmission" rather than "human-to-human transmission". Overall, then, transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, such as COVID-19, is due to systemic causes: general factors that are the same for all regions (e.g., biological characteristics of virus, incubation period, etc.) and specific factors which are different for each region (e.g., complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity) and health level of individuals (habits, immune system, age, sex, etc.). Lessons learned for COVID-19 in the case study o...

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is generating a high number of infected individuals and deaths. One of the current questions is how climatological factors and environmental pollution can affect the diffusion of COVID-19 in human society. This study endeavours to explain the relation between wind speed, air pollution and the diffusion of COVID-19 to provide insights to constrain and/or prevent future pandemics and epidemics. The statistical analysis here focuses on case study of Italy and reveals two main findings: 1) cities with high wind speed have lower numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals; 2) cities located in hinterland zones (mostly those bordering large urban conurbations) with little wind speed and frequently high levels of air pollution had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. Results here suggest that high concentrations of air pollutants, associated with low wind speeds, may promote a longer permanence of viral particles in polluted air of cities, thus favouring an indirect means of diffusion of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), in addition to the direct diffusion with human-to-human transmission dynamics.