This update on the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in the EU demonstrated that out of all tested wild boar found dead, the proportion of positive samples peaked in winter and summer. For domestic pigs only, a summer peak was evident. Despite the existence of several plausible factors that could result in the observed seasonality, there is no evidence to prove causality. Wild boar density was the most influential risk factor for the occurrence of ASF in wild boar. In the vast majority of introductions in domestic pig holdings, direct contact with infected domestic pigs or wild boar was excluded as the route of introduction. The implementation of emergency measures in the wild boar management zones following a focal ASF introduction was evaluated. As a sole control strategy, intensive hunting around the buffer area might not always be sufficient to eradicate ASF. However, the probability of eradication success is increased after adding quick and safe carcass removal. A wider buffer area leads to a higher success probability; however it implies a larger intensive hunting area and the need for more animals to be hunted. If carcass removal and intensive hunting are effectively implemented, fencing is more useful for delineating zones, rather than adding substantially to control efficacy. However, segments of fencing will be particularly useful in those areas where carcass removal or intensive hunting is difficult to implement. It was not possible to demonstrate an effect of natural barriers on ASF spread. Human‐mediated translocation may override any effect of natural barriers. Recommendations for ASF control in four different epidemiological scenarios are presented.

The European Commission requested EFSA to compare the reliability of wild boar density estimates across the EU and to provide guidance to improve data collection methods. Currently, the only EU‐wide available data are hunting data. Their collection methods should be harmonised to be comparable and to improve predictive models for wild boar density. These models could be validated by more precise density data, collected at local level e.g. by camera trapping. Based on practical and theoretical considerations, it is currently not possible to establish wild boar density thresholds that do not allow sustaining African swine fever (ASF). There are many drivers determining if ASF can be sustained or not, including heterogeneous population structures and human‐mediated spread and there are still unknowns on the importance of different transmission modes in the epidemiology. Based on extensive literature reviews and observations from affected Member States, the efficacy of different wild boar population reduction and separation methods is evaluated. Different wild boar management strategies at different stages of the epidemic are suggested. Preventive measures to reduce and stabilise wild boar density, before ASF introduction, will be beneficial both in reducing the probability of exposure of the population to ASF and the efforts needed for potential emergency actions (i.e. less carcass removal) if an ASF incursion were to occur. Passive surveillance is the most effective and efficient method of surveillance for early detection of ASF in free areas. Following focal ASF introduction, the wild boar populations should be kept undisturbed for a short period (e.g. hunting ban on all species, leave crops unharvested to provide food and shelter within the affected area) and drastic reduction of the wild boar population may be performed only ahead of the ASF advance front, in the free populations. Following the decline in the epidemic, as demonstrated through passive surveillance, active population management should be reconsidered.

EFSA assisted four countries in the analysis of epidemiological data on African swine fever (ASF), collected until September 2017. The temporal analysis demonstrated that the average proportions of PCR and antibody-ELISA positive samples from the hunted wild boar remained below 3.9 and 6.6, respectively. A peak in the ASF incidence was observed 6 months after the first observed case, followed by a significant reduction of the number of cases and low levels of African swine fever virus (ASFV) circulation at the end of 38 months follow-up period at different spatial resolutions. The spatial analysis concluded that human-mediated spread of ASFV continues to play a critical role in the ASF epidemiology, despite all measures currently taken. 'Wild boar density', 'total road length' (as proxy for human activity) and 'average suitable wild boar habitat availability' were identified as predictors for the occurrence of ASF in Estonia by a Bayesian hierarchical model, whereas 'wild boar density' and 'density of pig farms' were predictors according to a generalised additive model. To evaluate the preventive strategies proposed in EFSA's Scientific Opinion (2015) to stop the spread of ASFV in the wild boar population, a simulation model, building on expert knowledge and literature was used. It was concluded that reduction of wild boar population and carcass removal to stop the spread of ASFV in the wild boar population are more effective when applied preventively in the infected area. Drastic depopulation, targeted hunting of female wild boar and carcass removal solely implemented as measures to control ASF in the wild boar population need to be implemented in a highly effective manner (at or beyond the limit of reported effectivity in wild boar management) to sustainably halt the spread of ASF.

Since the first introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into the European wild boar population in 1957, the question of virus survival in carcasses of animals that succumbed to the disease has been discussed. The causative African swine fever virus (ASFV) is known to be very stable in the environment. Thus, carcasses of infected wild boar could play a major role as ASFV reservoir and thereby help to locally maintain and spread the disease in wild boar populations. To minimize this risk, removal of wild boar carcasses in ASF affected areas is regarded to be crucial for effective disease control. If removal is not feasible, carcasses are usually disposed by burial on the spot to avoid direct contact of wild boar to the infection source. In this study, carcasses of ASFV infected wild boar buried in Lithuania at different time points and locations have been excavated and retested for the presence of infectious ASFV by in vitro assays and for viral genome by qPCR. Soil samples potentially contaminated by body fluids have been additionally tested for viral genome. In seventeen out of twenty burial sites, samples of excavated carcasses were positive for ASFV genome. However, in none of the carcass samples ASFV could be isolated. On seven sites soil samples contained ASF viral DNA. These results unexpectedly negate the long‐term persistence of infectious ASFV in wild boar carcasses independent from the burial time. In this context, sensitivity of ASFV isolation from carcass samples versus susceptibility of animals and doses needed for oral inoculation has to be further investigated. Furthermore, research is required to consider alternative ASF infection sources and drivers in the infection cycle among wild boar.

In January 2014 the first case of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar of the Baltic States was reported from Lithuania. It has been the first occurrence of the disease in Eastern EU member states. Since then, the disease spread further affecting not only the Baltic States and Poland but also south-eastern Europe, the Czech Republic and Belgium. The spreading pattern of ASF with its long-distance spread of several hundreds of kilometers on the one hand and the endemic situation in wild boar on the other is far from being understood. By analyzing data of ASF cases in wild boar along with implemented control measures in Lithuania from 2014–2018 this study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the disease. In brief, despite huge efforts to eradicate ASF, the disease is now endemic in the Lithuanian wild boar population. About 86% of Lithuanian’s territory is affected and over 3225 ASF cases in wild boar have been notified since 2014. The ASF epidemic led to a considerable decline in wild boar hunting bags. Intensified hunting might have reduced the wild boar population but this effect cannot be differentiated from the population decline caused by the disease itself. However, for ASF detection sampling of wild boar found dead supported by financial incentives turned out to be one of the most effective tools.