Financial globalization has opened international capital markets to investors and companies worldwide. However, the global financial crisis also caused massive stock price volatility due in part to global availability of market information. We explore ten EU member states (France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain), and the USA. The explored period is March 3, 2003 to June 30, 2016, and includes the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008. The purpose of the article is to determine whether there is a contagion effect between the Bulgarian stock market and the other examined stock markets during the crisis period and whether these markets are efficient. We apply an augmented Dickey-Fuller test, DCC-GARCH model, autoregressive (AR) models, TGARCH model, and descriptive statistics. Our results show that a contagion between the Bulgarian capital market and the eight capital markets examined did exist during the global financial crisis of 2008. We register the strongest contagion effects from the U.S. and German capital markets on the Bulgarian capital market. The Bulgarian capital market is relatively integrated with the stock markets of Germany and the United State, which serves as an explanation of why the Bulgarian capital market was exposed to financial contagion effects from the U.S. capital market and the capital markets of EU member states during the crisis. We register statistically significant AR (1) for UK, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Romania, and Bulgaria, and we can define these global capital markets as inefficient.

Research background: Financial globalization has opened international capital markets to investors and companies worldwide. However, the global financial crisis has created big volatility in the stock prices that induces a restriction in the reflection of full information. We explore ten EU Member States (France, Germany, The United Kingdom, Belgium, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain), and the USA. The explored period is 03.03.2003 - 30.06.2016, as it includes the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008. Purpose of the article: To determine if there is a contagion effect between the Bulgarian stock market and the other examined stock markets during the crisis period and whether these markets are efficient. Methods: Argument Dickey-Fuller Test, DCC-GARCH Model, Autoregressive (AR) Models, TGARCH Model, Descriptive Statistics. Findings & Value added: Our results show that a contagion across the Bulgarian capital market and eight capital markets exist during the global financial crisis of 2008. We register the strongest contagion effects from US and German capital markets to the Bulgarian capital market. The Bulgarian capital market is relatively integrated with the stock markets of Germany and the United States. That is the explanation of why the Bulgarian capital market is exposed to financial contagion effects from the US capital market and the capital markets of EU member states during the crisis period. We register statistically significant AR (1) for the UK, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Romania, and Bulgaria, and we can define these global capital markets as inefficient.

The prognosis of upcoming crises and the course of actually understanding them is increasingly becoming a major subject of discussions in pursuit of reliable indicators. The trade war between the United States and China, along with the COVID-19 pandemic are two events that took place in the Chinese economy with the aforementioned characteristics of the Black swan phenomenon, to which this latest professional analysis is devoted. The objective of this research is to examine the response of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index, in addition to its relation with macroeconomic variables contributing towards a possible Black Swan Event. We employ an econometric methodology comprising of a unit root test, descriptive statistics, linear regression and correlation analysis for the period 2007-2019. Our results illustarte that the bubble from 2015, which is classified as a Black Swan event by many researchers, has a negative influence on the SSEC index. We can further deduce that there were some psychological effects on the Chinese stock market that lead to both, positive and negative trends of SSEC indices. The main findings confirmed that the Consumer Price Index, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Unemployment, GDP and Trade Balance were significantly elaborative macroeconomic variables, that had a substantial impact on the SSEC index.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the interactions between the constructed Financial Condition Indices (FCI), assumed as a measure of financial stress; the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI), as an external factor and the recession probability. The main research tools are the Principal Component Analysis and the random forest model machine-learning algorithm. In particular, we combine the FCI of 11 European economies -Bulgaria,

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