No abstract

In patients with BE, the risk of developing HGD or EAC is predominantly determined by the presence of LGD, a known duration of BE of ≥10 years, longer length of BE, and presence of esophagitis. One or combinations of these risk factors are able to identify patients with a low or high risk of neoplastic progression and could therefore be used to individualize surveillance intervals in BE.

p53 overexpression and, to a lesser extent, Ki67 overexpression could predict neoplastic progression in BE irrespective of the histological result. These markers may be useful for identifying patients at an increased risk of developing EAC, either alone or used as a panel.

Based on a Dutch healthcare perspective and assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35.000 per QALY, surveillance with EMR and RFA for HGD or early OAC, and oesophagectomy for advanced OAC is cost-effective every 5 years for ND and every 3 years for LGD.