A method of precipitation simulation that incorporates climatological information has been developed. A Markovian-based model is used to generate temporal sequences of six daily weather types: high pressure; coastal return; maritime tropical return; frontal maritime tropical return; cold frontal overrunning; and warm frontal overrunning. Precipitation values are assigned to individual days by using observed statistical relations between weather types and precipitation characteristics. When this method was applied to an area in the Delaware River basin, the statistics describing average precipitation, extreme precipitation, and drought conditions for simulated precipitation closely matched those of the observed data. Potential applications of this weather type precipitation model include climatic change research and modeling of temperature and evapotranspiration.
The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil‐moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from −39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.
General circulation models (GCMs) simulate climatic conditions with a grid cell resolution on the order of 100,000 km2. This resolution is inadequate to assess the effects of climatic change on water resources at a regional scale. A method has been developed that uses weather‐type analysis as a tool to spatially disaggregate GCM predictions to make them useful for water resource studies. The method has been applied to the Delaware River basin to predict the effects of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide on precipitation patterns in the region. An application of the technique to the Delaware River basin indicates that future climatic conditions will show minimal changes in weather‐type frequency, implying that air circulation patterns will remain unchanged. Results of this study indicate that changes in regional precipitation patterns under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will be a result of within‐type changes in weather characteristics.
One or more pesticides were detected with one or more volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in more than 95% of samples collected from 30 public supply and 95 monitoring wells screened in the unconsolidated surficial aquifer system of southern New Jersey, USA. Overall, more than 140,000 and more than 3,000 unique combinations of pesticides with VOCs were detected in two or more samples from the supply and monitoring wells, respectively. More than 400 of these combinations were detected in 20% or more of the samples from the supply wells, whereas only 17 were detected in 20% or more of the samples from the monitoring wells. Although many constituent combinations detected in water from the supply and monitoring wells are similar, differences in constituent combinations also were found and can be attributed, in part, to differences in the characteristics of these two well types. The monitoring wells sampled during this study yield water that typically was recharged beneath a single land-use setting during a recent, discrete time interval and that flowed along relatively short paths to the wells. Public supply wells, in contrast, yield large volumes of water and typically have contributing areas that are orders of magnitude larger than those of the monitoring wells. These large contributing areas generally encompass multiple land uses; moreover, because flow paths that originate in these areas vary in length, these wells typically yield water that was recharged over a large temporal interval. Water withdrawn from public supply wells, therefore, contains a mixture of waters of different ages that were recharged beneath various land-use settings. Because public supply wells intercept water flowing along longer paths with longer residence times and integrate waters from a larger source area than those associated with monitoring wells, they are more likely to yield water that contains constituents that were used in greater quantities in the past, that were introduced from point sources, and/or that are derived from the degradation of parent compounds along extended flow paths.
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