No abstract

When modeling the detection of targets in a simulation of combat, the detection process is frequently represented as a series of independent detections of individual elements of the target. This assumption ignores the effect of a common but unknown field environment within which the detections take place. In this article, multivariate survival distributions are developed for target element detections which occur in an unknown dynamic environment. A proportional hazards representation is adopted, which uses a random variable multiplying the detection rate to account for the effect of the environment. Several special cases are examined which are useful for modeling target unit detections.

No abstract

The US Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) is responsible for modeling the employment of tactical nuclear weapons at the theater level. The currently available simulation that models the exchange of tactical nuclear weapons takes a lot of time to set up and run. CAA has used a simple probability model based on alternating renewal processes to make a quick estimate of the probability that a relocatable combat unit can be acquired and engaged by nuclear weapons, without a loss in accuracy compared to the detailed simulation. The model may be applied to either tactical or strategic relocatable targets.

OMNo0704-0188 la. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED 2a. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTIONIAVALABILITY OF REPORT 2b. DECLASSIFICATION/OOWNGRADING SCHEDULE UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED 4. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER (S) CAA-TP-89-2 6a. NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATiON US Army Concepts Analysis 0ifappifable) Agency CSC,-RQN 6c. ADDRESS (city, State. and ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code)