A key public health need is to identify individuals at high risk for a given disease to enable enhanced screening or preventive therapies. Because most common diseases have a genetic component, one important approach is to stratify individuals based on inherited DNA variation. Proposed clinical applications have largely focused on finding carriers of rare monogenic mutations at several-fold increased risk. Although most disease risk is polygenic in nature, it has not yet been possible to use polygenic predictors to identify individuals at risk comparable to monogenic mutations. Here, we develop and validate genome-wide polygenic scores for five common diseases. The approach identifies 8.0, 6.1, 3.5, 3.2, and 1.5% of the population at greater than threefold increased risk for coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, type 2 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, and breast cancer, respectively. For coronary artery disease, this prevalence is 20-fold higher than the carrier frequency of rare monogenic mutations conferring comparable risk. We propose that it is time to contemplate the inclusion of polygenic risk prediction in clinical care, and discuss relevant issues.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects over 33 million individuals worldwide1 and has a complex heritability.2 We conducted the largest meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for AF to date, consisting of over half a million individuals including 65,446 with AF. In total, we identified 97 loci significantly associated with AF including 67 of which were novel in a combined-ancestry analysis, and 3 in a European specific analysis. We sought to identify AF-associated genes at the GWAS loci by performing RNA-sequencing and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analyses in 101 left atrial samples, the most relevant tissue for AF. We also performed transcriptome-wide analyses that identified 57 AF-associated genes, 42 of which overlap with GWAS loci. The identified loci implicate genes enriched within cardiac developmental, electrophysiological, contractile and structural pathways. These results extend our understanding of the biological pathways underlying AF and may facilitate the development of therapeutics for AF.

Highlights d A genome-wide polygenic score can quantify inherited susceptibility to obesity d Polygenic score effect on weight emerges early in life and increases into adulthood d Effect of polygenic score can be similar to a rare, monogenic obesity mutation d High polygenic score is a strong risk factor for severe obesity and associated diseases

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies.

Atrial fibrillation affects more than 33 million people worldwide and increases the risk of stroke, heart failure, and death.1,2 Fourteen genetic loci have been associated with atrial fibrillation in European and Asian ancestry groups.3–7 To further define the genetic basis of atrial fibrillation, we performed large-scale, multi-racial meta-analyses of common and rare variant association studies. The genome-wide association studies (GWAS) included 18,398 individuals with atrial fibrillation and 91,536 referents; the exome-wide association studies (ExWAS) and rare variant association studies (RVAS) involved 22,806 cases and 132,612 referents. We identified 12 novel genetic loci that exceeded genome-wide significance, implicating genes involved in cardiac electrical and structural remodeling. Our results nearly double the number of known genetic loci for atrial fibrillation, provide insights into the molecular basis of atrial fibrillation, and may facilitate new potential targets for drug discovery.8