Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520‐212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life‐history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7–14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 × rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was <3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long‐term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision‐making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision‐making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Although monitoring data for sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) are limited, current evidence suggests that four of the most common species wintering along the eastern coast of the United States—long-tailed duck Clangula hyemalis, white-winged scoter Melanitta fusca, surf scoter Melanitta perspicillata, and black scoter Melanitta americana—may be declining, while the status of American common eider Somateria mollissima dresseri is uncertain. The apparent negative trends, combined with the fact that sea duck life histories are among the most poorly documented of North American waterfowl, have led to concerns for these species and questions about the impacts of human activities, such as hunting, as well as catastrophic events and environmental change. During winter, thousands of sea ducks are found along the U.S. Atlantic coast, where they may be affected by proposed wind-power development, changes to marine traffic, aquaculture practices, sand mining, and other coastal development. Possible impacts are difficult to quantify because traditional winter waterfowl surveys do not cover many of the marine habitats used by sea ducks. Thus, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducted an experimental survey of sea ducks from 2008 to 2011 to characterize their winter distributions along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Each year, data were collected on 11 species of sea ducks on &gt;200 transects, stretching from Maine to Florida. In this paper, we describe distribution of common eider, long-tailed duck, white-winged scoter, surf scoter, and black scoter. Densities of the two species with the most northerly distribution, white-winged scoter and common eider, were highest near Cape Cod and Nantucket. Long-tailed duck was most abundant around Cape Cod, Nantucket Shoals, and in Chesapeake Bay. Surf scoter also concentrated within Chesapeake Bay; however, they were additionally found in high densities in Delaware Bay, and along the Maryland–Delaware outer coast. Black scoter, the most widely distributed species, occurred at high densities along the South Carolina coast and the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Spatial patterns of high-density transects were consistent among years for all species except black scoter, which exhibited the most interannual variation in distribution. The distance from land, depth, and bottom slope where flocks were observed varied among species and regions, with a median distance of 3.8 km from land along the coastal transects and 75% of flocks observed over depths of &lt;16 m. Common eider and long-tailed duck were observed closer to shore and over steeper ocean bottoms than were the three scoter species. Our results represent the first large-scale quantitative description of winter sea duck distribution along the U.S. Atlantic coast, and should guide the development of sea duck monitoring programs and aid the assessment of potential impacts of ongoing and proposed offshore development.

Wildlife managers routinely seek to establish sustainable limits of sport harvest or other regulated forms of take while confronted with considerable uncertainty. A growing body of ecological research focuses on methods to describe and account for uncertainty in management decision-making and to prioritize research and monitoring investments to reduce the most influential uncertainties. We used simulation methods incorporating measures of demographic uncertainty to evaluate risk of overharvest and prioritize information needs for North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini). Sea ducks are popular game birds in North America, yet they are poorly monitored and their population dynamics are poorly understood relative to other North American waterfowl. There have been few attempts to assess the sustainability of harvest of North American sea ducks, and no formal harvest strategy exists in the U.S. or Canada to guide management. The popularity of sea duck hunting, extended hunting opportunity for some populations (i.e., special seasons and/or bag limits), and population declines have led to concern about potential overharvest. We used Monte Carlo simulation to contrast estimates of allowable harvest and observed harvest and assess risk of overharvest for 7 populations of North American sea ducks: the American subspecies of common eider (Somateria mollissima dresseri), eastern and western populations of black scoter (Melanitta americana) and surf scoter (M. perspicillata), and continental populations of white-winged scoter (M. fusca) and long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis). We combined information from empirical studies and the opinions of experts through formal elicitation to create probability distributions reflecting uncertainty in the individual demographic parameters used in this assessment. Estimates of maximum growth (rmax), and therefore of allowable harvest, were highly uncertain for all populations. Long-tailed duck and American common eider appeared to be at high risk of overharvest (i.e., observed harvest < allowable harvest in 5–7% and 19–26% of simulations, respectively depending on the functional form of density dependence), whereas the other populations appeared to be at moderate risk to low risk (observed harvest < allowable harvest in 22–68% of simulations, again conditional on the form of density dependence). We also evaluated the sensitivity of the difference between allowable and observed harvest estimates to uncertainty in individual demographic parameters to prioritize information needs. We found that uncertainty in overall fecundity had more influence on comparisons of allowable and observed harvest than adult survival or observed harvest for all species except long-tailed duck. Although adult survival was characterized by less uncertainty than individual components of fecundity, it was identified as a high priority information need given the sensitivity of growth rate and allowable harvest to this parameter. Uncertainty about population size was influential in the comparison of observed and allowa...