Identifying drivers of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots is critical to assess threats to particular ecosystems and species and proactively plan for conservation. We analyzed land cover change between 2002 and 2007 in the northern Andes, Chocó, and Amazon forests of Colombia, the largest producer of coca leaf for the global cocaine market, to quantify the impact of this illicit crop on forest dynamics, evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in this context, and determine the effects of eradication on deforestation. Landscape-level analyses of forest conversion revealed that proximity to new coca plots and a greater proportion of an area planted with coca increased the probability of forest loss in southern Colombia, even after accounting for other covariates and spatial autocorrelation. We also showed that protected areas successfully reduced forest conversion in coca-growing regions. Neither eradication nor coca cultivation predicted deforestation rates across municipalities. Instead, the presence of new coca cultivation was an indicator of municipalities, where increasing population led to higher deforestation rates. We hypothesize that poor rural development underlies the relationship between population density and deforestation in coca-growing areas. Conservation in Colombia's vast forest frontier, which overlaps with its coca frontier, requires a mix of protected areas and strategic rural development to succeed.

Aim Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, such as severe droughts and intense rainfall periods. We explored how the avifauna of a highly modified region responded to a 13year drought (the 'Big Dry'), followed by a two-year period of substantially higher than average rainfall (the 'Big Wet').Location Temperate woodlands in north central Victoria, Australia.Methods We used two spatially extensive, long-term survey programmes, each of which was repeated three times: early and late in the Big Dry, and in the Big Wet. We compared species-specific changes in reporting rates between periods in both programmes to explore the resistance (the ability to persist during drought) and resilience (extent of recovery post-drought) of species to climate extremes. ResultsThere was a substantial decline in the reporting rates of 42-62% (depending on programme) of species between surveys conducted early and late in the Big Dry. In the Big Wet, there was some recovery, with 21-29% of species increasing substantially. However, more than half of species did not recover and 14-27% of species continued to decline in reporting rate compared with early on in the Big Dry. Species' responses were not strongly related to ecological traits. Species resistance to the drought was inversely related to resilience in the Big Wet for 20-35% of the species, while 76-78% of species with low resistance showed an overall decline across the study period.Conclusions As declines occurred largely irrespective of ecological traits, this suggests a widespread mechanism is responsible. Species that declined the most during the Big Dry did not necessarily show the greatest recoveries. In already much modified regions, climate extremes such as extended drought will induce on-going changes in the biota.

Body size is an integral functional trait that underlies pollination‐related ecological processes, yet it is often impractical to measure directly. Allometric scaling laws have been used to overcome this problem. However, most existing models rely upon small sample sizes, geographically restricted sampling and have limited applicability for non‐bee taxa. Allometric models that consider biogeography, phylogenetic relatedness, and intraspecific variation are urgently required to ensure greater accuracy. We measured body size as dry weight and intertegular distance (ITD) of 391 bee species (4,035 specimens) and 103 hoverfly species (399 specimens) across four biogeographic regions: Australia, Europe, North America, and South America. We updated existing models within a Bayesian mixed‐model framework to test the power of ITD to predict interspecific variation in pollinator dry weight in interaction with different co‐variates: phylogeny or taxonomy, sexual dimorphism, and biogeographic region. In addition, we used ordinary least squares regression to assess intraspecific dry weight ~ ITD relationships for ten bees and five hoverfly species. Including co‐variates led to more robust interspecific body size predictions for both bees and hoverflies relative to models with the ITD alone. In contrast, at the intraspecific level, our results demonstrate that the ITD is an inconsistent predictor of body size for bees and hoverflies. The use of allometric scaling laws to estimate body size is more suitable for interspecific comparative analyses than assessing intraspecific variation. Collectively, these models form the basis of the dynamic R package, “ pollimetry, ” which provides a comprehensive resource for allometric pollination research worldwide.

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