A farm‐level risk programming framework is presented which evaluates income/ environmental risk tradeoffs. This framework uses a time‐series of environmental risk indices to incorporate the stochastic, multiattribute characteristics of environmental outcomes associated with agricultural production practices. The model is applied to a representative farm in the Oklahoma Panhandle region of the Central High Plains. Results indicate that expected income is sensitive to nitrate loading restrictions, and relatively less sensitive to pesticide loading restrictions. Results also indicate that prescriptions derived using deterministic environmental risk measures may ignore significant probabilities of exceeding an environmental standard.

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution is a multidimensional problem encompassing several forms of contaminants and several environments (e.g., surface water and groundwater). Environmental risk indices can account for differences in chemical attributes and aggregate environmental outcomes across several forms of contaminants and environments. The objective of this analysis is to develop three environmental risk indices and use the indices to compare the environmental risk and economic returns associated with alternative production systems in the Oklahoma Panhandle region of the Central High Plains. Three environmental risk indices are developed that incorporate different information concerning the environmental effects of pesticide use. The first index—the environmental impact quotient (EIQ)—incorporates only chemical properties into the environmental risk assessment, while the two other indices—chemical environmental index (CINDEX) and chemical concentration index (CONG) also factor in estimates of expected annual runoff and percolation loadings and concentrations, respectively. Both statistical and graphical comparisons indicate that the three indices provide similar rankings of alternative production systems based upon their potential environmental consequences. The CONC index is characterized by greater volatility than the other indices, and its rankings of the production activities are least correlated with those derived from the two other indices. Results suggest some potential for reduction in environmental risk without large reductions in net returns. Application of the EIQ index, which does not explicitly incorporate chemical loading or concentration estimates, provides the highest estimate of income reductions. Environmental risk can be reduced by the greatest amount without significant income losses when CONC is used as the risk measurement. Therefore, although the three indices generate similar rankings of alternative production activities, their application can provide very different estimates of the economic consequences of attaining environmental objectives. Research Question Agricultural nonpoint source pollution is a multidimensional problem encompassing several forms of contaminants and several environments (e.g., surface water and groundwater). Development of policies aimed at controlling nonpoint source pollution is often frustrated by the fact that adoption of practices aimed at controlling one pollution source may increase another form of pollution. One means of addressing this problem when evaluating production systems based upon their environmental consequences is to develop measures of environmental risk which aggregate environmental outcomes across contaminants and environments. The objective of this study is to develop alternative measures of environmental risk and use the measures to compare the environmental and economic effects associated with production alternatives in the Central High Plains. Literature Summary Several attempts have been made to develop environmental risk indices ...

This paper develops a modeling framework for evaluating alternative water quality protection policies. The framework integrates the EPIC-PST crop growth/chemical transport model and a mathematical programming model. The framework is applied to the evaluation of four water quality policies in the southern high plains of the United States:l restrictions on per-acre nitrogen use, 9 taxes on nitrogen use, l taxes on irrigation water use, and l incentives to convert conventional irrigation systems to modem irrigation technology. The results indicate that producers would make a variety of tijustments in responding to these policies. doses d '&pa&age d 'azote par acre, 2) taxes sur 1 utilisation de 1 'azote, 3) tares sur 1 'eau d -btre de la socih!. L.es incitations h moderniser le systhe d'im'gation 1 'emportent nettement sur les trois autres politiques des points de vue, tant de la socit?tt! que des producteurs. Pour leur part les producteurs prt@reraient des restrictions sur 1 'emploi des engrais azoth ct des taxes sur 1 'azote ou sur 1 'eau parce que leur revenu agricole en serait moins a$ectt?. D 'autre part pour la soci& des taxes sur 1 'azote ou sur 1 'eau seraient plus souhaitables que des phfona3 impost% aux t?panakges d 'azote. Important responses might include reductions in nitrogen and water use, crop substitution, removal of la&from crop production and conversion from irrigated to dryland production. These four policies are evaluated based on changes in farm income and social welfare. The irrigation system conversion incentive clearly outpevonns other policies from both society 's and producers 'points of view. Producers would prefer nitrogen use restrictions to nitrogen or water use taxes because farm income would be reduced less una'er the restrictions than under the taxes. Nitrogen use taxes, however, are more desirable than nitrogen use restrictions from society's point of view. Nous t9hboron.s un cadre de modelisation pour evaluer diverses politiques de protection de la qualitt? de 1 'eau. L.e cadre integre le moaWe de transport croissance des cultures-produits agrochimiques EPIC-PST et un modele de programmation mathematique. I1 est utilise pour dvaluer quatre politiques de protection de la qualite' de 1 'eau dans les hautes plaines du sud des gtats-Unis, soit I) restriction des 'irrigation et 4) mesures incitatives pour moderniser les rt%eaur d s'm'gation. Les rhultats montrent que les producteurs seraient disposals h faire divers &justements pour se conformer ct ces politiques. Par& les plus importants, il y aurait le rt?duction de leur utilisation des engrais azoth et de 1 'eau, 1 'adoption d'autres cultures, le gel des terres cultivt?es et la reconversion d he production im*gtu?e h la culture pluviale. Ces quatre politiques sont &al&es h partir des changements affectant le revenu agricole et le bien

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Obtaining estimates of pesticide productivity is an economic response to the growing public concern about thesteady increase ofpesticide useinthe United States. Thistypeofrcsearch indicates the cost of Iimiting pesticide use in terms of foregone output. Previous empirical studies give a "snap-shot", or "avemge", look at pesticide productivity. This research effort employs a random coefficient model to determine the trend of the marginal value product of pesticides in agrictdturc in the United States. Results show a distinct downward trend in two states, Iowa and Texas. California, however, shows noevidence ofa downward trend.