Summary 1.Linking the movement and behaviour of animals to their environment is a central problem in ecology. Through the use of electronic tagging and tracking (ETT), collection of in situ data from free-roaming animals is now commonplace, yet statistical approaches enabling direct relation of movement observations to environmental conditions are still in development. 2. In this study, we examine the hidden Markov model (HMM) for behavioural analysis of tracking data. HMMs allow for prediction of latent behavioural states while directly accounting for the serial dependence prevalent in ETT data. Updating the probability of behavioural switches with tag or remote-sensing data provides a statistical method that links environmental data to behaviour in a direct and integrated manner. 3. It is important to assess the reliability of state categorization over the range of time-series lengths typically collected from field instruments and when movement behaviours are similar between movement states. Simulation with varying lengths of times series data and contrast between average movements within each state was used to test the HMMs ability to estimate movement parameters. 4. To demonstrate the methods in a realistic setting, the HMMs were used to categorize resident and migratory phases and the relationship between movement behaviour and ocean temperature using electronic tagging data from southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii). Diagnostic tools to evaluate the suitability of different models and inferential methods for investigating differences in behaviour between individuals are also demonstrated.
Conservation concerns exist for many sharks but robust estimates of abundance are often lacking. Improving population status is a performance measure for species under conservation or recovery plans, yet the lack of data permitting estimation of population size means the efficacy of management actions can be difficult to assess, and achieving the goal of removing species from conservation listing challenging. For potentially dangerous species, like the white shark, balancing conservation and public safety demands is politically and socially complex, often leading to vigorous debate about their population status. This increases the need for robust information to inform policy decisions. We developed a novel method for estimating the total abundance of white sharks in eastern Australia and New Zealand using the genetic-relatedness of juveniles and applying a close-kin mark-recapture framework and demographic model. Estimated numbers of adults are small (ca. 280-650), as is total population size (ca. 2,500-6,750). However, estimates of survival probability are high for adults (over 90%), and fairly high for juveniles (around 73%). This represents the first direct estimate of total white shark abundance and survival calculated from data across both the spatial and temporal life-history of the animal and provides a pathway to estimate population trend.Top-order predators retain a very visible presence in human society due to their size, power, dramatic interactions with prey and infrequent, but high profile, interactions with humans that sometimes result in tragic outcomes. The latter generates considerable public and political debate, particularly for protected species, requiring a delicate balance between maintaining public safety and population recovery 1 . The white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) is emblematic of this duality. It is globally distributed, long lived (>50 yrs), attains up to 6.5 m, and has low reproductive potential making populations vulnerable to decline from human impacts 2,3 . It has gained notoriety from attacks on humans and through its prominence in popular culture 4 . White sharks are listed under international conventions restricting global trade and coordinating conservation measures. They are listed as Vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and on both Appendices II and III of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species (CMS) 5 . They are protected in the national waters of several countries due to documented or perceived population declines and vulnerabilities given its life history 2 . White sharks are protected in Australia, listed as both Vulnerable and Migratory under the Federal Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, protected under various State legislation and subject to a national recovery plan to arrest decline and improve population status 6 . Despite global progress on identifying movement patterns, habitat and populat...
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