This paper presents results of a survey of national legislation and strategies to mitigate climate change from 2007 to 2012 covering almost all United Nations member states. This dataset is distinguished from the existing literature in its breadth of coverage, its focus on national policies rather than international pledges, and on the use of objective metrics rather than normative criteria. To accomplish this, the data is also limited to national climate legislation and strategies and does not cover sub-national or sectoral measures. Climate legislation and strategies are important because they can: enhance incentives for climate mitigation, provide mechanisms for mainstreaming; and provide a focal point for actors.Three broad findings emerge. First, there has been a substantial increase in climate legislation and strategies between 2007 and 2012: 67% of global GHG emissions are now under national climate legislation or strategy compared to 45% in 2007. Second, there are substantial regional effects to the patterns, with most increases in non-Annex 1 countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Third, many more countries have adopted climate strategies than have adopted climate legislation between 2007 and 2012. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research. Policy RelevanceThis paper tracks the increase in climate legislation and strategy. This spread suggest that, at the national level, there is some movement in re-shaping climate governance despite the relatively slow pace of global negotiations, although the exact implications of this spread requires further research on stringency of actions and their implementation. Asia and Latin America represent the biggest improvements, while OECD countries, which start from a high base, remain relatively stagnant. Implications of regional patterns are further refined by an analysis by emissions, which shows that some areas of low levels of legislation and strategy, are also areas of relatively low emissions. A broad trend toward an emphasis on strategies rather than legislation, with the significant exception of China, calls for enhanced research into the practical impact of national non-binding climate strategies versus binding legislation on countries actual emissions over time.
The adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015 moved the world a step closer to avoiding dangerous climate change. The aggregated individual intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are not yet sufficient to be consistent with the long-term goals of the agreement of 'holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 28C' and 'pursuing efforts' towards 1.58C. However, the Paris Agreement gives hope that this inconsistency can be resolved. We find that many of the contributions are conservative and in some cases may be overachieved. We also find that the preparation of the INDCs has advanced national climate policy-making, notably in developing countries. Moreover, provisions in the Paris Agreement require countries to regularly review, update and strengthen these actions. In addition, the significant number of non-state actions launched in recent years is not yet adequately captured in the INDCs. Finally, we discuss decarbonization, which has happened faster in some sectors than expected, giving hope that such a transition can also be accomplished in other sectors. Taken together, there is reason to be optimistic that eventually national action to reduce emissions will be more consistent with the agreed global temperature limits. Policy relevanceThe next step for the global response to climate change is not only implementation, but also strengthening, of the Paris Agreement. To this end, national governments must formulate and implement policies to meet their INDC pledges, and at the same time consider how to raise their level of ambition. For many developing countries, implementation and tougher targets will require financial, technological and other forms of support. The findings of this article are highly relevant for both national governments and support organizations in helping them to set their implementation priorities. Its findings also put existing INDCs in the context of the Paris Agreement's global goals, indicating the extent to which current national commitments need to be strengthened, and possible ways in which this could be done.
This article identifies and quantifies the 10 most important benchmarks for climate action to be taken by 2020-2025 to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emission pathway. We conducted a comprehensive review of existing emissions scenarios, scanned all sectors and the respective necessary transitions, and distilled the most important short-term benchmarks for action in line with the long-term perspective of the required global low-carbon transition. Owing to the limited carbon budget, combined with the inertia of existing systems, global energy economic models find only limited pathways to stay on track for a 1.5°C world consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.The identified benchmarks include:. Sustain the current growth rate of renewables and other zero and low-carbon power generation until 2025 to reach 100% share by 2050; . No new coal power plants, reduce emissions from existing coal fleet by 30% by 2025;. Last fossil fuel passenger car sold by 2035-2050;. Develop and agree on a 1.5°C-consistent vision for aviation and shipping;. All new buildings fossil-free and near-zero energy by 2020;. Increase building renovation rates from less than 1% in 2015 to 5% by 2020;. All new installations in emissions-intensive sectors low-carbon after 2020, maximize material efficiency; . Reduce emissions from forestry and other land use to 95% below 2010 levels by 2030, stop net deforestation by 2025; . Keep agriculture emissions at or below current levels, establish and disseminate regional best practice, ramp up research; . Accelerate research and planning for negative emission technology deployment. Key policy insights. These benchmarks can be used when designing policy options that are 1.5°C, Paris Agreement consistent. . They require technology diffusion and sector transformations at a large scale and high speed, in many cases immediate introduction of zero-carbon technologies, not marginal efficiency improvements. . For most benchmarks we show that there are signs that the identified needed transitions are possible: in some specific cases it is already happening.
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