Two puzzling facts of international real business cycles are (1) weak or negative correlations between the terms of trade and output, and (2) a rise in relative consumption for countries where national goods become relatively more expensive. We show that these puzzles either vanish or become much weaker in recent data. We propose a new mechanism that generates endogenous international price movements that are consistent with both the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ facts. In this mechanism, firms operating in a monopolistically competitive environment adjust price and quality of their products in response to technological shocks. This model is consistent with the old facts if price levels are not adjusted for quality. Instead, if quality adjustments to price level are introduced, then the model’s properties are in line with the new facts.
The home bias in portfolios is considered a main puzzle in international macroeconomics. This paper provides a new benchmark for its analysis in a tractable new open economy macroeconomic model, where the home‐biased position is an optimal allocation. An equilibrium model of perfect risk‐sharing is specified, with endogenous portfolios and firm entry. Unlike in previous work, the international portfolio diversification is driven by home bias in capital goods—independently of home bias in consumption when countries are of equal size. The model explains the recent patterns of portfolio allocations in developed economies. Most important, optimal portfolio shares are independent of market dynamics.
Some macroeconomic dimensions like the economic business cycle, the exchange rate movements when the degree of country openness is significant, or the level of inflation are often considered to explain measured-inflation dynamics. However, inflation volatility may also be affected by statistical agencies methodological changes. This paper explores both potential explanations in a panel data for 100 United States CPI-U subcategories. We find that crucial changes in how agencies consider quality adjustment in products, together with the aforementioned macroeconomic variables help t o understand CPI volatility over time, both in the short-run and in the long-run.JEL codes: E30, E31.
Within the framework of the soft budget constraint problem, this article investigates the impact of a legislative reform that increased regional tax autonomy on the propensity of Spanish regional governments to incur a deficit. For this purpose, a dynamic panel data model is estimated, using data for the period 1984–2019. The sample shows a breakpoint in 2002, when the reform of the regional financing system came into force, providing Spanish regions with greater tax autonomy, more fiscal competency, and lower intergovernmental transfers. Results show that the budget constraint has hardened, as regions have fewer incentives to accumulate budgetary deficits with the expectation of future compensations from the central government. A comprehensive review of the evolution of other factors previously identified as determinants of soft budget constraints, and the analysis of two regions not included in this financing system, suggest no other possible explanation for these results.
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