Rockfalls evolve rapidly and unpredictably in mountain environments and can cause considerable losses to human societies, structures, economical activities, and also natural and historical heritage. Rockfall risk analyses are complex and multi-scale processes involving several disciplines and techniques. This complexity is due to the main features of rockfall phenomena, which are extremely variable over space and time. Today, a considerable number of methods exists for protecting land, as well as assessing and managing the risk level. These methodologies are often very different from each other, depending on the data required, the purposes of the analysis, and the reference scale adopted, i.e., the analysis level of detail. Nevertheless, several questions still remain open with reference to each phase of the hazard and risk process. This paper is devoted to a general overview of existing risk estimation methodologies and a critical analysis of some open questions with the aim of highlighting possible further research topics. A typical risk assessment framework is exemplified by analyzing a real case study. Each step of the process is treated at both the detailed and the large scale in order to highlight the main characteristics of each level of detail.

The identification of the most rockfall-prone areas is the first step of the risk assessment procedure. In the case of land and urban planning, hazard and risk analyses involve large portions of territory, and thus, preliminary methods are preferred to define specific zones where more detailed computations are needed. To reach this goal, the QGIS-based plugin QPROTO was developed, able to quantitatively compute rockfall time-independent hazard over a three-dimensional topography on the basis of the Cone Method. This is obtained by combining kinetic energy, passing frequency and detachment propensity of each rockfall source. QPROTO requires the definition of few angles (i.e., the energy angle and the lateral angle ) that should take into account all the phenomena occurring during the complex block movement along the slope. The outputs of the plugin are a series of raster maps reporting the invasion zones and the quantification of both the susceptibility and the hazard. In this paper, a method to relate these angles to some characteristics of the block (volume and shape) and the slope (inclination, forest density) is proposed, to provide QPROTO users with a tool for estimating the input parameters. The results are validated on a series of case studies belonging to the north-western Italian Alps.

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SUMMARYThis paper investigates the possibility of interpreting progressive shear failure in hard soils and soft rocks as the result of shear propagation of a pre-existing natural defect. This is done through the application of the principles of fracture mechanics, a slip-weakening model (SWM) being used to simulate the non-linear zone at the tips of the discontinuity. A numerical implementation of the SWM in a computation method based on the boundary element technique of the displacement discontinuity method (DDM) is presented. The crack and the non-linear zone at the advancing tip are represented through a set of elements, where the displacement discontinuity (DD) in the tangential direction is determined on the basis of a friction law. A residual friction angle is assumed on the crack elements. Shear resistance decreases on elements in the non-linear zone from a peak value at the tip, which is characteristic of intact material, to the residual value. The simulation of a uniaxial compressive test in plane strain conditions is carried out to exemplify the numerical methodology. The results emphasize the role played by the critical DD on the mechanical behaviour of the specimen. A validation of the model is shown through the back analysis of some experimental observations. The results of this back analysis show that a non-linear fracture mechanics approach seems very promising to simulate experimental results, in particular with regards to the shear band evolution pattern.

Abstract.A study of the large, deep-seated Rosone landslide (Italian Western Alps) is presented. A large amount of geological and geomechanical data has been collected in this area, due to the presence of various villages and man-made structures, and an automatic monitoring system was installed in December 2000. Since its installation, this system has been showing a continuous slow movement with periodical accelerations that can be correlated to heavy rainfall events. A hydrogeological model has been developed to study the influence of rainfall events on the pore pressure variations inside the rock slope.The structural characteristics, inclinometric and piezometric measurements, statigraphic and seismic profiles, geomorphologic information, water balance and chemical analyses of the main springs in the slope have been taken into account to consider this problem. A numerical hydraulic investigation, based on a continuum equivalent model of the landslide, has then been carried out using the FLAC 3D computer code. Some preliminary results, which highlight the role of permeability and the porosity values of the rock mass on the pore pressure variations during heavy rainfall, are shown in the paper.