AimThe fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid-Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) forests to the north should comprise species from younger clades (families) than forests to the south; (2) average cold tolerance at a local site should be associated with the mean family age (MFA) of species; (3) minimum temperature should account for MFA better than alternative environmental variables; and (4) traits associated with survival in cold climates should evolve under a niche conservatism constraint.LocationThe contiguous United States.MethodsWe extracted angiosperms from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database. MFA was calculated by assigning age of the family to which each species belongs and averaging across the species in each community. We developed a phylogeny to identify phylogenetic signal in five traits: realized cold tolerance, seed size, seed dispersal mode, leaf phenology and height. Phylogenetic signal representation curves and phylogenetic generalized least squares were used to compare patterns of trait evolution against Brownian motion. Eleven predictors structured at broad or local scales were generated to explore relationships between environment and MFA using random forest and general linear models.ResultsConsistent with predictions, (1) southern communities comprise angiosperm species from older families than northern communities, (2) cold tolerance is the trait most strongly associated with local MFA, (3) minimum temperature in the coldest month is the environmental variable that best describes MFA, broad-scale variables being much stronger correlates than local-scale variables, and (4) the phylogenetic structures of cold tolerance and at least one other trait associated with survivorship in cold climates indicate niche conservatism.Main conclusionsTropical niche conservatism in the face of long-term climate change, probably initiated in the Late Cretaceous associated with the rise of the Rocky Mountains, is a strong driver of the phylogenetic structure of the angiosperm component of forest communities across the USA. However, local deterministic and/or stochastic processes account for perhaps a quarter of the variation in the MFA of local communities.

The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability.

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Aim  To determine if it is possible to generate analytically derived regionalizations for multiple groups of European plants and animals and to explore potential influences on the regions for each taxonomic group. Location  Europe. Methods  We subjected range maps of trees, butterflies, reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals to k‐means clustering followed by v‐fold cross‐validation to determine the pattern and number of regions (clusters). We then used the mean range sizes of species in each group as a correlate of the number of regions obtained for each taxon, and climate and species richness gradients as correlates of the spatial arrangement of the group‐specific regions. We also included the pattern of tree clusters as a predictor of animal clusters in order to test the ‘habitat templet’ concept as an explanation of animal distribution patterns. Results  Spatially coherent clusters were found for all groups. The number of regions ranged from three to eight and was strongly associated with the mean range sizes of the species in each taxon. The cluster patterns of all groups were associated with various combinations of climate, underlying species richness gradients and, in the case of animals, the arrangement of tree clusters, although the rankings of the correlates differed among groups. In four of five groups the tree pattern was the strongest single predictor of the animal cluster patterns. Main conclusions  Despite a long history of human disturbance and habitat modification, the European biota retains a discernable biogeographic structure. The primary driver appears to be aspects of climate related to water–energy balance, which also influence richness gradients. For many animals, the underlying habitat structure, as measured by tree distributions, appears to have a strong influence on their biogeographic structure, highlighting the need to preserve natural forest formations if we want to preserve the historical signal found in geographic distributions.