The spread of COVID-19 has had a signifi cant impact on economic and social activities, with the agri-food sector being no exception. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous studies investigating its sectoral infl uence have been carried out, putting emphasis on demand and supply shocks and changes in trade volumes. However, there has not been much research into the implications of the pandemic for prices. To fi ll the research gap, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of COVID-19 on producer prices in the EU-27 in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. The study is based on monthly data on trade in agri-food commodities according to the SITC classifi cation in 2015-2020 and the monthly producer prices index of food (2015 = 100) in the EU countries. It was assumed that the agri-food trade balance is the key factor determining the level and changes of domestic prices. The theoretical background for empirical research is provided by a spatial partial equilibrium model and the concept of spatial market integration. The results of the study reveal that there is a negative and statistically signifi cant relationship between an export-import ratio (which illustrates the country’s self-suffi ciency level) in the pre-COVID-19 period and price changes in Q2 of 2020 as well as Q3 of 2020. However, no statistically signifi cant results were obtained for the regression models explaining the relationship between changes in the export/import ratio and price changes in second and third quarters of 2020.

The pandemic caused by the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has widespread socio-economic consequences worldwide. The implications of the COVID-19 crisis also include changes in production, consumption, trade, and agri-food commodity prices. This paper focuses on the repercussions of the COVID-19 crisis on producer and retail prices of agri-food commodities in European Union (EU) countries. The study is based on monthly producer and consumer food price indices in EU countries. In estimating the impact of COVID-19 on prices, actual price changes were compared with counterfactual figures derived from ex-post forecasts calculated according to regARIMA models. The study of the causes of price changes was based on both quantitative and qualitative approaches. In the quantitative approach, the impact of the strength of applied restrictions and the trade position of countries on the deviation of actual prices from the forecasts was examined. For this purpose, regression models based on cross-sectional data were applied. The results show that there is a quite significant variation in the dynamics of changes in agri-food commodity prices both among countries and across the marketing chain. A negative and statistically significant relationship has been found between country food self-sufficiency in the pre-COVID-19 period and changes in producer prices during the first phase of the COVID-19 crisis. In turn, the strength of stay-at-home restrictions was significant for retail price formation during the COVID-19 crisis. The general conclusion is that the responses of agri-food prices during the pandemic vary both spatially and over time.

Sektor zbożowy należy do jednych z ważniejszych w gospodarce żywnościowej krajów Unii Europejskiej (UE). Ceny ziarna oraz produktów jego przetwórstwa, ich zmiany w czasie i wzajemne powiązania, przekładają się bezpośrednio na sytuację dochodową producentów rolnych oraz konsumentów, stąd często stawały się przedmiotem analiz. W niniejszym opracowaniu skoncentrowano się na procesie pionowej transmisji cen, tj. przepływie impulsów od cen surowców rolnych do cen detalicznych w krajach UE oraz wpływie wybranych czynników rynkowych na ten proces. Badania empiryczne przeprowadzono na podstawie miesięcznych cen skupu pszenicy konsumpcyjnej oraz miesięcznych indeksów cen detalicznych pieczywa w krajach UE w latach 2015-2021, wykorzystując modele ARDL. Analiza wykazała, że szybkość i skala reakcji cen pieczywa na szok spowodowany zmianą cen pszenicy była zróżnicowana w poszczególnych krajach. Badania przyczyn odmiennego zachowania cen, bazujące na podejściu ilościowym i jakościowym, wskazały na występowanie i) negatywnej zależności między udziałem piekarni przemysłowych w produkcji pieczywa ogółem a natychmiastową reakcją cen konsumenta na zmiany cen pszenicy oraz ii) negatywnej zależności między stopniem koncentracji handlu detalicznego oraz PKB per capita a długookresowym przełożeniem cen skupu na ceny pieczywa