We compare satellite albedo images of Vatnajo« kull, Iceland, with massbalance measurements for the years 1991^99. We find that the equilibrium line is mostly not visible when it is located above its position of the previous year(s). Equilibrium-line detection is further hindered by clouds and a gradual transition between ice and firn or snow. Consequently, firn-line elevation at the end of the melting season is not particularly useful for estimating the annual mass balance. Instead, we propose to study the mean albedo of the entire ice cap throughout the melting season so that all available information about the surface albedo is taken into account. The mean net potential global radiation, which can be estimated from the mean surface albedo alone, both depends on and influences summer melt. It also depends on winter precipitation and, integrated over the melting season, is found to relate linearly to the specific mass balance B (r 0.87 and 0.94 for different outlets of Vatnajo« kull). B can be estimated quantitatively when this relation is known and qualitatively when it is not. The uncertainty in the satellite-derived value of B is 0.5^0.8 m w.e., which for Vatnajo« kull corresponds to about 27% of the interannual variability of B.

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we report on an approach to estimate the contribution of Arctic glaciers to sea-level change. In our calculation we assume that a static approach is feasible. We only calculate changes in the surface balance from modelled sensitivities. These sensitivities, summarized in the seasonal sensitivity characteristic, can be used to calculate the change in the surface mass budget for given anomalies of monthly temperature and precipitation. We have based our calculations on a subdivision of all Arctic ice into 13 regions: four sectors of the Greenland ice sheet; the Canadian Arctic >748 N; the Canadian Arctic <748 N; Alaska, USA; Iceland; Svalbard; Zemlya Frantsa Iosifa, Russia; Novaya Zemlya, Russia; Severnaya Zemlya, Russia; and Norway/Sweden >608 N. As forcing for the calculations, we have used the output from five climate models, for the period 2000-2100. These models were forced by the same greenhouse-gas scenario (IPCC-B2). The calculated contributions to sea-level rise in the year 2100 vary from almost zero to about 6 cm. The differences among the models stem first of all from differences in the precipitation. The largest contribution to sea-level change comes from the Greenland ice sheet. The glaciers in Alaska also make a large contribution, not because of the area they cover, but because they are more sensitive than other glaciers in the Arctic. The climate models do not agree on regional patterns. The runoff from Svalbard glaciers, for instance, increases for two models and decreases for the three other models. We conclude that the uncertainty due to a simple representation of the glaciological processes is probably smaller than the uncertainty induced by the differences in the climate-change scenarios produced by the models.

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