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The growing use of bioenergy goes hand in hand with a heated public debate, in which conflicting claims are made regarding the amount of biomass that can be sustainably used for this purpose. This article assesses the current knowledge on biomass resource potentials and interrelated factors such as water availability, biodiversity, food demand, energy demand and agricultural commodity markets. A sensitivity analysis of the available information narrows the range of biomass potentials from 0-1500 EJ/yr to approximately 200-500 EJ/yr in 2050. In determining the latter range, water limitations, biodiversity protection and food demand are taken into consideration. Key factors are agricultural efficiency and crop choice. In principle, global biomass potentials could meet up to one third of the projected global energy demand in 2050.

This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020. With a mandatory blending policy, the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European levels. The additional demand from the energy sector leads to an increase in global land use and, ultimately, a decrease in biodiversity. The development, on the other hand, might slow or reverse the long-term process of declining real agricultural prices. Moreover, assuming a further liberalization of the European agricultural market imports of biofuels are expected to increase to more than 50% of the total biofuel demand in Europe. Preface This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020. With a mandatory blending policy, the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European levels. The additional demand from the energy sector leads to an increase in global land use and, ultimately, a decrease in biodiversity. The development, on the other hand, might slow or reverse the long-term process of declining real agricultural prices. Moreover, assuming a further liberalization of the European agricultural market imports of biofuels are expected to increase to more than 50% of the total biofuel demand in Europe. This work builds forward on the methodlogy developed in the EUruralis project financed by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality. In the EUruralis project the GTAP model is extended with first generation biofuels and land markets (Rienks, 2008, Eickhout and Prins 2008). Two methodological improvements which are essential to assess the impact of biofuels and biofuel policies. In this paper we assess the impact of the EU biofuel directive, in another LEI working paper that will appear soon, we assess the the global and sectoral implications of policy initiatives in different countries or regions (e.g. the U.S., the EU, Canada, South Africa or Japan) to enhance bioenergy demand and production.

Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales, or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage. Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches can help assess (i) the causes of differences and similarities in model output, which is important for interpreting the results for policy-making and (ii) the linkages, feedbacks, and trade-offs between different systems and impacts (e.g., economic and natural), which is key to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of biomass supply and demand. But, full consistency or integration in assumptions, structure, solution algorithms, dynamics and feedbacks can be difficult to achieve. And, if it is done, it frequently implies a trade-off in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal, and structural) and/or computation. Three key research areas are selected to illustrate how model collaboration can provide additional ways for tackling some of the shortcomings and uncertainties in the assessment of biomass supply and demand and their impacts. These research areas are livestock production, agricultural residues, and greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change. Describing how model collaboration might look like in these examples, we show how improved model collaboration can strengthen our ability to project biomass supply, demand, and impacts. This in turn can aid in improving the information for policy-makers and in taking better-informed decisions.

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