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Aflatoxins are the most thoroughly studied mycotoxins. Elegant early research on the biosynthetic scheme of the pathway has allowed a molecular characterization of aflatoxin biosynthesis and its regulation. Genetic studies on aflatoxin biosynthesis in Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, and sterigmatocystin biosynthesis in A. nidulans, led to the cloning of 17 genes responsible for 12 enzymatic conversions in the AF/ST pathways. Pathway-specific regulation is by a Zn(II)2Cys6 DNA-binding protein that regulates the transcription of all pathway genes. Less is known about the global factors that regulate aflatoxin biosynthesis, but there is a clear link between development and aflatoxin biosynthesis. There is also a large body of information on physiological factors involved in aflatoxin biosynthesis, but it has been difficult to understand their role in the regulation of this pathway. This chapter discusses current knowledge on the molecular biology and genetics of the pathway, and provides a summary of the physiological factors known to influence aflatoxin formation.

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Objective: Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs. Design: Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMI-related diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the population. Results: In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050 there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806 million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1?2 billion and $US 1?7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050. Conclusions: Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.

Objective: To project the prevalence of obesity across the WHO European region and examine whether the WHO target of halting obesity at 2010 levels by 2025 is achievable. Methods: BMI data were collected from online databases and the literature. Past and present BMI trends were extrapolated to 2025 using a non-linear categorical regression model fitted to nationally representative survey data. Where only 1 year of data was available, a flat trend was assumed. Where no data were available, proxy country data was used adjusted for demographics. Results: By 2025, obesity is projected to increase in 44 countries. If present trends continue, 33 of the 53 countries are projected to have an obesity prevalence of 20% or more. The highest prevalence is projected for Ireland (43%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 28-58%). Lithuania, Finland, and the Netherlands were each estimated to have an absolute increase of 2 percentage points in the prevalence of obesity between 2015 and 2025. Discussion: The quality of BMI data across Europe is highly variable, with fewer than 50% of the 53 countries having measured nationally representative data and often not enough data to interpret projections meaningfully. Nevertheless, the prevalence of obesity in the European Region appears to be increasing in most countries and, with it, the health and economic burden of its associated diseases. This paints a concerning picture of the future burden of obesity-related noncommunicable diseases across the region. Greater and continued effort for the implementation of effective preventive policies and interventions is required from governments.