Next-generation sequencing technologies can be used to analyse genetically heterogeneous samples at unprecedented detail. The high coverage achievable with these methods enables the detection of many low-frequency variants. However, sequencing errors complicate the analysis of mixed populations and result in inflated estimates of genetic diversity. We developed a probabilistic Bayesian approach to minimize the effect of errors on the detection of minority variants. We applied it to pyrosequencing data obtained from a 1.5-kb-fragment of the HIV-1 gag/pol gene in two control and two clinical samples. The effect of PCR amplification was analysed. Error correction resulted in a two- and five-fold decrease of the pyrosequencing base substitution rate, from 0.05% to 0.03% and from 0.25% to 0.05% in the non-PCR and PCR-amplified samples, respectively. We were able to detect viral clones as rare as 0.1% with perfect sequence reconstruction. Probabilistic haplotype inference outperforms the counting-based calling method in both precision and recall. Genetic diversity observed within and between two clinical samples resulted in various patterns of phenotypic drug resistance and suggests a close epidemiological link. We conclude that pyrosequencing can be used to investigate genetically diverse samples with high accuracy if technical errors are properly treated.

Therapeutic success of anti-HIV therapies is limited by the development of drug resistant viruses. These genetic variants display complex mutational patterns in their pol gene, which codes for protease and reverse transcriptase, the molecular targets of current antiretroviral therapy. Genotypic resistance testing depends on the ability to interpret such sequence data, whereas phenotypic resistance testing directly measures relative in vitro susceptibility to a drug. From a set of 650 matched genotype-phenotype pairs we construct regression models for the prediction of phenotypic drug resistance from genotypes. Since the range of resistance factors varies considerably between different drugs, two scoring functions are derived from different sets of predicted phenotypes. Firstly, we compare predicted values to those of samples derived from 178 treatment-naive patients and report the relative deviance. Secondly, estimation of the probability density of 2000 predicted phenotypes gives rise to an intrinsic definition of a susceptible and a resistant subpopulation. Thus, for a predicted phenotype, we calculate the probability of membership in the resistant subpopulation. Both scores provide standardized measures of resistance that can be calculated from the genotype and are comparable between drugs. The geno2pheno system makes these genotype interpretations available via the Internet (http://www.genafor.org/).

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies enable new insights into the diversity of virus populations within their hosts. Diversity estimation is currently restricted to single-nucleotide variants or to local fragments of no more than a few hundred nucleotides defined by the length of sequence reads. To study complex heterogeneous virus populations comprehensively, novel methods are required that allow for complete reconstruction of the individual viral haplotypes. Here, we show that assembly of whole viral genomes of ∼8600 nucleotides length is feasible from mixtures of heterogeneous HIV-1 strains derived from defined combinations of cloned virus strains and from clinical samples of an HIV-1 superinfected individual. Haplotype reconstruction was achieved using optimized experimental protocols and computational methods for amplification, sequencing and assembly. We comparatively assessed the performance of the three NGS platforms 454 Life Sciences/Roche, Illumina and Pacific Biosciences for this task. Our results prove and delineate the feasibility of NGS-based full-length viral haplotype reconstruction and provide new tools for studying evolution and pathogenesis of viruses.

We introduce a mixture model of trees to describe evolutionary processes that are characterized by the ordered accumulation of permanent genetic changes. The basic building block of the model is a directed weighted tree that generates a probability distribution on the set of all patterns of genetic events. We present an EM-like algorithm for learning a mixture model of K trees and show how to determine K with a maximum likelihood approach. As a case study, we consider the accumulation of mutations in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase that are associated with drug resistance. The fitted model is statistically validated as a density estimator, and the stability of the model topology is analyzed. We obtain a generative probabilistic model for the development of drug resistance in HIV that agrees with biological knowledge. Further applications and extensions of the model are discussed.