No abstract

Five factors are a prerequisite for tourism: Ability to travel and motivation to travel on the demand side, and attractiveness, amenities and accessibility on the side of the destination. Concerning the attractiveness of a destination, the factor weather is of particular importance. Until now, there is a lack of empirical data, showing if and how weather affects holiday destination preferences.

This paper is intended to demonstrate the usefulness of a psychological experimental approach in researching the underlying processes of socio-economic impacts of the effects of an eventual climate change in the field of tourism. Tourism demand for the German coasts at the North and Baltic Seas may be influenced in some way by climate change impacts, e.g. by new preferences for holiday destinations due to changing environmental conditions (especially weather) and due to the actions taken by the tourism industry to cope with these changes. A pilot study was designed and carried out in order to develop a method to measure the sensitivity of destination choice to climate change effects and to gain first ideas of whether and how destination preferences will probably change. 136 subjects in 5 experimental conditions were given scenarios describing 'positive' or 'negative' climate change effects with and without (re)actions of the regional tourism industry. The control group received a scenario describing no changes. Subjects interest in spending a holiday at the North Sea and Baltic Sea in Germany were defined as the dependent variable. One of the crucial aspects was to check whether the applied technique is appropriate for making the situation, which is only a hypothetical and future one, sufficiently clear (make it feel 'real') to the participants in the study. The methodological approach is suitable for further (and more in depth) research: subjects had no trouble imagining the scenarios. The manipulation checks indicated differences, and differences between conditions were also found in the dependent variables. Thus, the adopted procedure appears promising and can be applied in future studies. Nevertheless, some improvements are recommended. Within the restricted possibilities of a pilot study, first ideas on whether and in which direction the effects of an eventual climate change may influence destination choice of tourists are presented. According to the data, climate change can influence the preferences for vacation destinations. With respect to the North German coastal region, this effect is rather a negative one. Under the climate change conditions presented in the scenarios, possible tourists are less eager to travel there than under today's conditions. It will not be easy for the local and regional tourism industry to reduce negative effects or to use positive effects to a certain extent by appropriate action. Within limits this possibility may exist, but one has to be rather careful in defining what is 'appropriate', e.g. with respect to their target groups in tourism. The results still do not allow for predictions of destination choice or behaviour patterns during holidays. The experimental method described here may be one additional tool to the many others used to gain a clearer picture of a possible future of tourism in coastal areas under climate change conditions.

Given the projected growth of the senior citizens market, designing specific marketing strategies to meet the prospective needs of elderly tourists will become increasingly important. There has been an implicit assumption that there will be a close relationship between the travel behaviour of today’s seniors and those of future ones. This paper reports on a re-analysis of results of the German annual travel survey (Reiseanalyse), and suggests that such an assumption might be misleading. Tourist demand and travel behaviour are not necessarily determined by age, but by generation. For the last third of the life cycle, the travel behaviour of a particular generation seems to be quite rigid, and does not change significantly because of factors such as retirement. The results of this analysis show that travel propensity, or patterns of tourist behaviour, remain the same up to 20 years for a given generation. Therefore, understanding the future travel behaviour of senior citizens is perhaps not as difficult as it might first appear. In conclusion, the actual travel behaviour (including expectations, motivations and aspirations) of people aged between 55 and 65 years in 2000 allows a prediction of prospective travellers aged 65 to 75 years in the year 2010. Such an approach supplies reliable data for the design of future marketing strategies and suitable products.

Tourism is a complex system within a dynamic framework that is exposed to rapid and challenging developments. The existing tourism research does not fully address the nature of the global, intertwined challenges that may affect and shape the worldwide tourism system in the future with respect to both the industry and society. This article contributes to eliminating this knowledge gap using an exploratory Delphi survey that seeks to identify the most prominent challenges to global tourism through 2020 and to understand their nature, drivers, and effects. The five proposed meta-challenges demonstrate the complexity of the interrelations and interdependencies affecting the future of the global tourism system. These meta-challenges may also be regarded as constituting a strategic road map for global tourism in a complex and dynamic world.