We report on the organization and outcome of the fourth blind test of crystal structure prediction, an international collaborative project organized to evaluate the present state in computational methods of predicting the crystal structures of small organic molecules. There were 14 research groups which took part, using a variety of methods to generate and rank the most likely crystal structures for four target systems: three single-component crystal structures and a 1:1 cocrystal. Participants were challenged to predict the crystal structures of the four systems, given only their molecular diagrams, while the recently determined but as-yet unpublished crystal structures were withheld by an independent referee. Three predictions were allowed for each system. The results demonstrate a dramatic improvement in rates of success over previous blind tests; in total, there were 13 successful predictions and, for each of the four targets, at least two groups correctly predicted the observed crystal structure. The successes include one participating group who correctly predicted all four crystal structures as their first ranked choice, albeit at a considerable computational expense. The results reflect important improvements in modelling methods and suggest that, at least for the small and fairly rigid types of molecules included in this blind test, such calculations can be constructively applied to help understand crystallization and polymorphism of organic molecules.

A collaborative workshop was held in May 1999 at the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre to test how well currently available methods of crystal structure prediction perform when given only the atomic connectivity for an organic compound. A blind test was conducted on a selection of four compounds and a wide range of methodologies representing, the principal computer programs currently available were used. There were 11 participants who were allowed to propose at most three structures for each compound. No program gave consistently reliable results. However, seven proposed structures were close to an experimental one and were classified as "correct". One compound occurred in two polymorphs, but only one form was predicted correctly among the calculated structures. The basic problem with lattice energy based methods of crystal structure prediction is that many structures are found within a few kJ mol(-1) of the global minimum. The fine detail of the force-field methodology and parametrization influences the energy ranking within each method. Nevertheless, present methods may be useful in providing a set of structures as possible polymorphs for a given molecular structure.

Following the interest generated by two previous blind tests of crystal structure prediction (CSP1999 and CSP2001), a third such collaborative project (CSP2004) was hosted by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. A range of methodologies used in searching for and ranking the likelihood of predicted crystal structures is represented amongst the 18 participating research groups, although most are based on the global minimization of the lattice energy. Initially the participants were given molecular diagrams of three molecules and asked to submit three predictions for the most likely crystal structure of each. Unlike earlier blind tests, no restriction was placed on the possible space group of the target crystal structures. Furthermore, Z' = 2 structures were allowed. Part-way through the test, a partial structure report was discovered for one of the molecules, which could no longer be considered a blind test. Hence, a second molecule from the same category (small, rigid with common atom types) was offered to the participants as a replacement. Success rates within the three submitted predictions were lower than in the previous tests - there was only one successful prediction for any of the three ;blind' molecules. For the ;simplest' rigid molecule, this lack of success is partly due to the observed structure crystallizing with two molecules in the asymmetric unit. As in the 2001 blind test, there was no success in predicting the structure of the flexible molecule. The results highlight the necessity for better energy models, capable of simultaneously describing conformational and packing energies with high accuracy. There is also a need for improvements in search procedures for crystals with more than one independent molecule, as well as for molecules with conformational flexibility. These are necessary requirements for the prediction of possible thermodynamically favoured polymorphs. Which of these are actually realised is also influenced by as yet insufficiently understood processes of nucleation and crystal growth.

The first collaborative workshop on crystal structure prediction (CSP1999) has been followed by a second workshop (CSP2001) held at the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The 17 participants were given only the chemical diagram for three organic molecules and were invited to test their prediction programs within a range of named common space groups. Several different computer programs were used, using the methodology wherein a molecular model is used to construct theoretical crystal structures in given space groups, and prediction is usually based on the minimum calculated lattice energy. A maximum of three predictions were allowed per molecule. The results showed two correct predictions for the first molecule, four for the second molecule and none for the third molecule (which had torsional flexibility). The correct structure was often present in the sorted low-energy lists from the participants but at a ranking position greater than three. The use of non-indexed powder diffraction data was investigated in a secondary test, after completion of the ab initio submissions. Although no one method can be said to be completely reliable, this workshop gives an objective measure of the success and failure of current methodologies.

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