The study explores how news messages carrying parts of the populist ideology contribute to a polarization of public opinion about populism. It combines a content analysis of news coverage on two policy areas (N = 7,119 stories) with a two-wave panel survey (N = 2,338) in four European metropolitan regions (Berlin, Paris, London, Zurich). In three regions, unopposed media messages with a populist stance have a conditional effect on populist attitudes that depends on prior convictions. A higher dose of exposure to populist news coverage enhances both prior agreement and disagreement with populism. While the observed interaction patterns vary between regions, the general picture suggests that populist messages in the news foster polarization between public support and disapproval of populism.
Linkage analyses use data from panel surveys and content analyses to assess media effects under field conditions and are able to close the gap between experimental and survey-based media effects research. Results from current studies and simulations indicate, however, that these studies systematically under-estimate real media effects as they aggregate measurement errors and reduce the complexity of media content. In response to these issues, we propose a new method for linkage analysis which applies agent-based simulations to directly assess short-term media effects using empirical data as guideposts.Results from an example study modeling opinion dynamics in the run-up of a Swiss referendum show that this method outperforms traditional regression-based linkage analyses in detail and explanatory power. In spite of the time-consuming modeling and computation process, this approach is a promising tool to study individual media effects under field conditions.
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