Environmental fiscal reform and the possibility of triple dividend in European and non-European countries: evidence from a meta-regression analysis

This paper synthesises the simulation studies concerning green tax reform (GTR) and employment double dividend (EDD) in European and non-European countries. The studies included investigate the effect of GTR on employment. We compared the simulation results between European and non-European countries to understand the impact of study region and our findings are fivefold. First, the simulation results suggest that GTR-driven EDD is observed in both European and non-European countries, but the average effect on employment in European countries (0.67%) is significantly greater than in non-European countries (0.18%). Second, optimal tax and tax revenue recycling policies in European and non-European countries for EDD are not identical. Reducing employers' social security contributions (SSC) has the potential to generate EDD in both countries. However, a reduction in value added tax has the highest average effect on employment in European countries (1.62%), which negatively affects employment in non-European countries (−0.02%). Third, a reduction in personal income tax as a tax recycling method creates a marginally average employment dividend in non-European countries (0.16%) but is counterproductive in European countries (−0.15%). Fourth, other taxes, which predominantly represent mixed taxes, exhibit the highest EDD potential in both European (1.01%) and non-European (0.46%) countries. Finally, employment dividend diminishes over time, but a weak quadratic pattern has been observed that reveals an accelerating effect on employment in the long term. These reflections should be considered before employing GTR in non-European countries in order to yield EDD.

Disasters and pandemics such as COVID-19 will change the world in many ways and the road to redemption from the ongoing economic distress may require a novel approach. This paper proposes a path towards economic recovery that keeps sustainability at the forefront. A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate different green tax reform (GTR) policies for triple dividend (TD), consisting of lower emissions, higher GDP and higher employment. The GTR design consists of an energy tax coupled with one of three tax revenue recycle methods: (i) reduction of payroll tax, (ii) reduction of goods and services tax (GST) and (iii) a mixed-recycling approach. The paper also presents the impact of higher productivity on the tax reform simulations, which is a possible positive externality of lower emissions. The study is based on the Australian economy and the salient findings are twofold: (i) productivity gain in the GTR context improves the GDP and employment outcomes in all three different simulation scenarios and (ii) GST reduction has the highest TD potential, followed by reduction of payroll tax.

In this paper we present a meta-regression analysis of simulation studies concerning green tax reform (GTR). Our study investigates the employment effect of GTR across European and non-European countries. The existing literature postulates that employment double dividend (EDD) is achievable; however, the majority of the studies come from European countries. In this paper, we compared the performance of GTR led EDD in European and non-European contexts to observe whether there is any notable difference across country groups. Our results show that both tax and tax revenue recycle policies play a significant role in determining the employment effect. However, the optimal policy mix is not identical for European and non-European countries. Region specific policy design is required for optimal employment effect.

Australia has one of the highest per capita carbon emissions, and its energy sector contributes significantly to the country’s carbon emissions. Renewable energy and climate change call for a shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon technologies for energy production. Policies aiming to reduce carbon emissions are perceived by many people as leading to higher living costs, but changes in energy policies can also lead to economic gains in the presence of revenue recycling. This article applies a computable general equilibrium approach to study the effect of energy tax in the Australian economy. Four different scenarios of green tax reform (GTR) are simulated to test the employment double dividend (EDD) potential. All four scenarios simulate changes in energy tax and one of four tax revenue recycling policies including (a) value added tax reduction, (b) payroll tax reduction, (c) goods and services tax (GST) reduction and (d) a mixture of all three recycling policies. The results show strong EDD potential of GST and payroll tax reduction when used along with energy tax in a revenue-neutral GTR approach. The study also presents a comparison of an optimal EDD inducive policy design between the European and Australian GTR approaches. JEL classifications: H23, C68, H21, Q48