Background Leprosy, a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae , is often late- or misdiagnosed leading to irreversible disabilities. Blood transcriptomic biomarkers that prospectively predict those who progress to leprosy (progressors) would allow early diagnosis, better treatment outcomes and facilitate interventions aimed at stopping bacterial transmission. To identify potential risk signatures of leprosy, we collected whole blood of household contacts (HC, n=5,352) of leprosy patients, including individuals who were diagnosed with leprosy 4-61 months after sample collection. Methods We investigated differential gene expression (DGE) by RNA-Seq between progressors before presence of symptoms (n=40) and HC (n=40), as well as longitudinal DGE within each progressor. A prospective leprosy signature was identified using a machine learning approach (Random Forest) and validated using reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). Findings Although no significant intra-individual longitudinal variation within leprosy progressors was identified, 1,613 genes were differentially expressed in progressors before diagnosis compared to HC. We identified a 13-gene prospective risk signature with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 95.2%. Validation of this RNA-Seq signature in an additional set of progressors (n=43) and HC (n=43) by RT-qPCR, resulted in a final 4-gene signature, designated RISK4LEP ( MT-ND2, REX1BD, TPGS1, UBC ) (AUC=86.4%). Interpretation This study identifies for the first time a prospective transcriptional risk signature in blood predicting development of leprosy 4 to 61 months before clinical diagnosis. Assessment of this signature in contacts of leprosy patients can function as an adjunct diagnostic tool to target implementation of interventions to restrain leprosy development. Funding This study was supported by R2STOP Research grant, the Order of Malta-Grants-for-Leprosy-Research, the Q.M. Gastmann-Wichers Foundation and the Leprosy Research Initiative (LRI) together with the Turing Foundation (ILEP# 702.02.73 and # 703.15.07).

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Mycobacterium leprae, the causative agent of leprosy, is an unculturable bacterium with a considerably reduced genome (3.27 Mb) compared to homologues mycobacteria from the same ancestry. In 2001, the genome of M. leprae was first described and subsequently four genotypes (1-4) and 16 subtypes (A-P) were identified providing means to study global transmission patterns for leprosy. In order to understand the role of asymptomatic carriers we investigated M. leprae carriage as well as infection in leprosy patients (n = 60) and healthy household contacts (HHC; n = 250) from Bangladesh using molecular detection of the bacterial element RLEP in nasal swabs (NS) and slit skin smears (SSS). In parallel, to study M. leprae genotype distribution in Bangladesh we explored strain diversity by whole genome sequencing (WGS) and Sanger sequencing. In the studied cohort in Bangladesh, M. leprae DNA was detected in 33.3% of NS and 22.2% of SSS of patients with bacillary index of 0 whilst in HHC 18.0% of NS and 12.3% of SSS were positive. The majority of the M. leprae strains detected in this study belonged to genotype 1D (55%), followed by 1A (31%). Importantly, WGS allowed the identification of a new M. leprae genotype, designated 1B-Bangladesh (14%), which clustered separately between the 1A and 1B strains. Moreover, we established that the genotype previously designated 1C, is not an independent subtype but clusters within the 1D genotype. Intraindividual differences were present between the M. leprae strains obtained including mutations in hypermutated genes, suggesting mixed colonization/infection or in-host evolution. In summary, we observed that M. leprae is present in asymptomatic contacts of leprosy patients fueling the concept that these individuals contribute to the current intensity of transmission. Our data therefore emphasize the importance of sensitive and specific tools allowing post-exposure prophylaxis targeted at M. leprae-infected or -colonized individuals.

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease, caused by Mycobacterium leprae, that can lead to severe lifelong disabilities. The transmission of M. leprae is continuously ongoing as witnessed by the stable new case detection rate. The majority of exposed individuals does, however, not develop leprosy and is protected from infection by innate immune mechanisms. In this study the relation between innate immune markers and M. leprae infection as well as the occurrence of leprosy was studied in household contacts (HCs) of leprosy patients with high bacillary loads. Serum proteins associated with innate immunity (ApoA1, CCL4, CRP, IL-1Ra, IL-6, IP-10, and S100A12) were determined by lateral flow assays (LFAs) in conjunction with the presence of M. leprae DNA in nasal swabs (NS) and/or slit-skin smears (SSS). The HCs displayed ApoA1 and S100A12 levels similar to paucibacillary patients and could be differentiated from endemic controls based on the levels of these markers. In the 31 households included the number (percentage) of HCs that were concomitantly diagnosed with leprosy, or tested positive for M. leprae DNA in NS and SSS, was not equally divided. Specifically, households where M. leprae infection and leprosy disease was not observed amongst members of the household were characterized by higher S100A12 and lower CCL4 levels in whole blood assays of HCs in response to M. leprae. Lateral flow assays provide a convenient diagnostic tool to quantitatively measure markers of the innate immune response and thereby detect individuals which are likely infected with M. leprae and at risk of developing disease or transmitting bacteria. Low complexity diagnostic tests measuring innate immunity markers can therefore be applied to help identify who should be targeted for prophylactic treatment.

Mycobacterium leprae, the causative agent of leprosy, is an unculturable bacterium with a considerably reduced genome (3.27 Mb) compared to homologues mycobacteria from the same ancestry. M. leprae transmission is suggested to occur through aerosols but the exact mechanisms of infection remains unclear. In 2001, the genome of M. leprae was first described and subsequently four genotypes (1-4) and 16 subtypes (A-P) were identified providing means to study global transmission patterns for leprosy. We investigated M. leprae carriage as well as infection in leprosy patients (n=60) and healthy household contacts (HHC; n=250) from Bangladesh using molecular detection of the bacterial element RLEP in nasal swabs (NS) and slit skin smears (SSS). In parallel, we explored bacterial strain diversity by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and Sanger sequencing. In the studied cohort in Bangladesh, M. leprae DNA was detected in 33.3% of NS and 22.2% of SSS of patients with bacillary index of 0 whilst in HHC 18.0% of NS and 12.3% of SSS were positive. The majority of the M. leprae strains detected in this study belonged to genotype 1D (55%), followed by 1A (31%). Importantly, WGS allowed the identification of a new M. leprae genotype, designated 1B-Bangladesh (14%), which clustered separately between the 1A and 1B strains. Moreover, we established that the genotype previously designated 1C, is not an independent subtype but clusters within the 1D genotype. Intraindividual differences were present between the M. leprae strains obtained including mutations in hypermutated genes, suggesting mixed colonization/infection or in-host evolution. In summary, we observed that M. leprae is present in asymptomatic contacts of leprosy patients fueling the concept that these individuals contribute to the current intensity of transmission. Our data therefore emphasize the importance of sensitive and specific tools allowing post-exposure prophylaxis targeted at M. leprae-infected or -colonized individuals.