This article describes a reflectivity forward operator developed for the validation and assimilation of W-band radar data into the regional AROME class of numerical weather prediction models. The forward operator is consistent with the AROME ICE3 one-moment microphysical scheme and is devised for vertically pointing radars. A new neighbourhood validation method, the Most Resembling Column (MRC) method, is designed to disentangle spatial location model errors from errors in the forward operator. This novel method is used to validate the forward operator using data collected in diverse conditions by the airborne cloud radar RASTA (Radar Airborne System Tool for Atmosphere) during a 2 month period over a region of the Mediterranean. The MRC method is then applied to retrieve the optimal effective shapes (i.e. the mean axis ratios) of the predicted graupel, snow and pristine ice, by minimizing the standard deviation between observations and simulations. The optimal mean axis ratio is approximately 0.7 for snow and 0.8 for graupel. It is shown that treating snow and graupel particles as oblate spheroids with axis ratios close to their optimal values leads to good agreement between the observations and simulations of the ice levels. Conversely, there is a large bias if snow and graupel particles are considered to be either spherical or overly flattened. The results also indicate that pristine ice can be approximated by a sphere, but this conclusion should be taken cautiously since the amount of pristine ice particles is probably overestimated in the ICE3 microphysical scheme.

Abstract. The development of ground-based cloud radars offers a new capability to continuously monitor fog structure. Retrievals of fog microphysics are key for future process studies, data assimilation, or model evaluation and can be performed using a variational method. Both the one-dimensional variational retrieval method (1D-Var) or direct 3D/4D-Var data assimilation techniques rely on the combination of cloud radar measurements and a background profile weighted by their corresponding uncertainties to obtain the optimal solution for the atmospheric state. In order to prepare for the use of ground-based cloud radar measurements for future applications based on variational approaches, the different sources of uncertainty due to instrumental, background, and forward operator errors need to be properly treated and accounted for. This paper aims at preparing 1D-Var retrievals by analysing the errors associated with a background profile and a forward operator during fog conditions. For this, the background was provided by a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model and the forward operator by a radar simulator. Firstly, an instrumental dataset was taken from the SIRTA observatory near Paris, France, for winter 2018–2019 during which 31 fog events were observed. Statistics were calculated comparing cloud radar observations to those simulated. It was found that the accuracy of simulations could be drastically improved by correcting for significant spatio-temporal background errors. This was achieved by implementing a most resembling profile method in which an optimal model background profile is selected from a domain and time window around the observation location and time. After selecting the background profiles with the best agreement with the observations, the standard deviation of innovations (observations–simulations) was found to decrease significantly. Moreover, innovation statistics were found to satisfy the conditions needed for future 1D-Var retrievals (un-biased and normally distributed).

Abstract. This article investigates the potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The “1D+3DVar” assimilation method, operationally employed to assimilate ground-based precipitation radar data in the Météo-France kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model AROME, has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity measured by the airborne cloud radar RASTA (Radar Airborne System Tool for Atmosphere) during a 2-month period over the Mediterranean area. After applying a bias correction, vertical profiles of relative humidity are first derived via a 1-D Bayesian retrieval, and then used as relative humidity pseudo-observations in the 3DVar assimilation system of AROME. The efficiency of the 1-D Bayesian method in retrieving humidity fields is assessed using independent in-flight humidity measurements. To complement this study, the benefit brought by consistent thermodynamic and dynamic cloud conditions has been investigated by separately and jointly assimilating the W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind measurements collected by RASTA in the 3 h 3DVar assimilation system of AROME. The data assimilation experiments are conducted for a single heavy precipitation event and then also for 32 cases. Results indicate that the W-band reflectivity has a larger impact on the humidity, temperature and pressure fields in the analyses compared to the assimilation of RASTA wind data alone. Besides, the analyses get closer to independent humidity observations if the W-band reflectivity is assimilated alone or jointly with RASTA wind data. Nonetheless, the impact of the W-band reflectivity decreases more rapidly as the forecast range increases when compared to the assimilation of RASTA wind data alone. Generally, the joint assimilation of the W-band reflectivity with wind data results in the best improvement in the rainfall precipitation forecasts. Consequently, results of this study indicate that consistent thermodynamic and dynamic cloud conditions in the analysis leads to an improvement of both model initial conditions and forecasts. Even though to a lesser extent, the assimilation of the W-band reflectivity alone also results in a slight improvement of the rainfall precipitation forecasts.

Abstract. The development of ground based cloud radars offers a new capability to continuously monitor the fog structure. Retrievals of fog microphysics is key for future process studies, data assimilation or model evaluation, and can be performed using a variational method. Both the one-dimensional variational retrieval method (1D-Var) or direct 3D/4D-Var data assimilation techniques rely on the combination of cloud radar measurements and a background profile weighted by their corresponding uncertainties to obtain the optimal solution for the atmospheric state. In order to prepare for the use of ground-based cloud radar measurements for future applications based on variational approaches, the different sources of uncertainty due to instrumental, background, and the forward operator errors need to be properly treated and accounted for. This paper aims at preparing 1D-Var retrievals by analysing the errors associated with a background profile and a forward operator during fog conditions. For this, the background was provided by a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model and the forward operator by a radar simulator. Firstly, an instrumental dataset was taken from the SIRTA observatory near Paris, France for winter 2018–19 during which 31 fog events were observed. Statistics were calculated comparing cloud radar observations to those simulated. It was found that the accuracy of simulations could be drastically improved by correcting for significant spatio-temporal background errors. This was achieved by implementing a most resembling profile method in which an optimal model background profile is selected from a domain and time window around the observation location and time. After selecting the best background profile a good agreement was found between observations and simulations. Moreover, observation minus simulation errors were found to satisfy the conditions needed for future 1D-var retrievals (un-biased and normally distributed).

Abstract. The article reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind vertical profile data in a kilometre-scale NWP system on predicting heavy precipitation events in the north-western Mediterranean area. The data collected in diverse conditions by the airborne W-band radar RASTA (Radar Airborne System Tool for Atmosphere) during a 45-day period are assimilated in the 3-h 3DVar assimilation system of AROME. The impact of the length of the assimilation window is investigated. The data assimilation experiments are performed for a heavy rainfall event, which occurred over south-eastern France on 26 September 2012 (IOP7a), and over a 45-day cycled period. During IOP7a, results indicate that the quality of the rainfall accumulation forecasts increases with the length of the assimilation window. By contrast, on the 45-day period, the best scores against rain gauges measurements are reached with a 1 hour assimilation window, which recommends to use observations with a small period centred on the assimilation time. The positive impact of the assimilation of RASTA wind data is particularly evidenced for the IOP7a case since results indicate an improvement in the predicted wind at short term ranges (2 hours and 3 hours) and in the 12-hour precipitation forecasts. However, on the 45-day cycled period, the comparison against other assimilated observations shows an overall neutral impact. Results are still encouraging since a slight positive improvement in the 6-, 9- and 12-hour precipitation forecasts of heavier rainfall was demonstrated.