Thermal-stress events associated with climate change cause coral bleaching and mortality that threatens coral reefs globally. Yet coral bleaching patterns vary spatially and temporally. Here we synthesize field observations of coral bleaching at 3351 sites in 81 countries from 1998 to 2017 and use a suite of environmental covariates and temperature metrics to analyze bleaching patterns. Coral bleaching was most common in localities experiencing high intensity and high frequency thermal-stress anomalies. However, coral bleaching was significantly less common in localities with a high variance in sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Geographically, the highest probability of coral bleaching occurred at tropical mid-latitude sites (15–20 degrees north and south of the Equator), despite similar thermal stress levels at equatorial sites. In the last decade, the onset of coral bleaching has occurred at significantly higher SSTs (∼0.5 °C) than in the previous decade, suggesting that thermally susceptible genotypes may have declined and/or adapted such that the remaining coral populations now have a higher thermal threshold for bleaching.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and magnitude of temperature anomalies that cause coral bleaching, leading to widespread mortality of stony corals that can fundamentally alter reef structure and function. However, bleaching often is spatially variable for a given heat stress event, and drivers of this heterogeneity are not well resolved. While small-scale experiments have shown that excess nitrogen can increase the susceptibility of a coral colony to bleaching, we lack evidence that heterogeneity in nitrogen pollution can shape spatial patterns of coral bleaching across a seascape. Using island-wide surveys of coral bleaching and nitrogen availability within a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework, we tested the hypothesis that excess nitrogen interacts with temperature anomalies to alter coral bleaching for the two dominant genera of branching corals in Moorea, French Polynesia. For both coral genera, Pocillopora and Acropora, heat stress primarily drove bleaching prevalence (i.e., the proportion of colonies on a reef that bleached). In contrast, the severity of bleaching (i.e., the proportion of an individual colony that bleached) was positively associated with both heat stress and nitrogen availability for both genera. Importantly, nitrogen interacted with heat stress to increase bleaching severity up to twofold when nitrogen was high and heat stress was relatively low. Our finding that excess nitrogen can trigger severe bleaching even under relatively low heat stress implies that mitigating nutrient pollution may enhance the resilience of coral communities in the face of mounting stresses from global climate change.

Climate change threatens coral reefs by causing heat stress events that lead to widespread coral bleaching and mortality. Given the global nature of these mass coral mortality events, recent studies argue that mitigating climate change is the only path to conserve coral reefs. Using a global analysis of 223 sites, we show that local stressors act synergistically with climate change to kill corals. Local factors such as high abundance of macroalgae or urchins magnified coral loss in the year after bleaching. Notably, the combined effects of increasing heat stress and macroalgae intensified coral loss. Our results offer an optimistic premise that effective local management, alongside global efforts to mitigate climate change, can help coral reefs survive the Anthropocene.

The mass mortality of acroporid corals has transformed Caribbean reefs from coral- to macroalgal-dominated habitats since systematic monitoring began in the 1970s. Declines have been attributed to overfishing, pollution, sea urchin and coral disease, and climate change, but the mechanisms are unresolved due to the dearth of pre-1970s data. We used paleoecological, historical, and survey data to track Acropora presence and dominance throughout the Caribbean from the prehuman period to present. Declines in dominance from prehuman values first occurred in the 1950s for Acropora palmata and the 1960s for Acropora cervicornis, decades before outbreaks of acroporid disease or bleaching. We compared trends in Acropora dominance since 1950 to potential regional and local drivers. Human population negatively affected and consumption of fertilizer for agriculture positively affected A. palmata dominance, the latter likely due to lower human presence in agricultural areas. The earlier, local roots of Caribbean Acropora declines highlight the urgency of mitigating local human impacts.