Agriculture is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy, contributing to food security and employment of rural households. Climate variability and change have adversely affected this sector and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. We estimate the effect of climate variability and change on revenue from all crops, maize and tea separately, using a household fixed effects estimator. We find that climate variability and change affects agricultural production but effects differ across crops. Temperature has a negative effect on crop and maize revenues but a positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect on tea. We find that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall patterns and any excess would negatively affect production. Temperature has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater effects in the tea sector. Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty should be a priority in Kenya. Implementing adaptation measures at national, county and farm levels as well as putting in place policies that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change.

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We derive input demand functions for fertiliser and hybrid seed, testing for the combined and separate effects of income from non-farm sources and agricultural wage labour among smallholder maize farmers in Kenya. More income from offfarm sources, and specifically non-farm sources, competes with maize intensification, particularly in more productive areas where use rates are higher. In less productive areas, where households rely more on off-farm income and input use in maize is extremely low, agricultural wage labour reduces the likelihood that fertiliser is applied, but when used, has a positive effect on quantities purchased of both seed and fertiliser.

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