No abstract

BackgroundDiagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance.MethodsWe studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis.ResultsCompared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5–98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6–87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4–7.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.083 (0.022–0.32), and misclassification rate 0.20 (standard error 0.038).ConclusionsIn Tanzanian children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, combinations of host biomarkers distinguished between end-point pneumonia, other infiltrates, and normal chest x-ray, whereas clinical variables did not. These findings generate pathophysiological hypotheses and may have potential research and clinical utility.

BackgroundWe assessed nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage of five pathogens in febrile children with and without acute respiratory infection (ARI) of the upper (URTI) or lower tract, attending health facilities in Tanzania.MethodsNP swabs collected from children (N = 960) aged 2 months to 10 years, and with a temperature ≥38°C, were utilized to quantify bacterial density of S. pneumoniae (Sp), H. influenzae (Hi), M. catarrhalis (Mc), S. aureus (Sa), and N. meningitidis (Nm). We determined associations between presence of individual species, densities, or concurrent carriage of all species combination with respiratory diseases including clinical pneumonia, pneumonia with normal chest radiography (CXR) and endpoint pneumonia.ResultsIndividual carriage, and NP density, of Sp, Hi, or Mc, but not Sa, or Nm, was significantly associated with febrile ARI and clinical pneumonia when compared to febrile non-ARI episodes. Density was also significantly increased in severe pneumonia when compared to mild URTI (Sp, p<0.002; Hi p<0.001; Mc, p = 0.014). Accordingly, concurrent carriage of Sp+, Hi+, and Mc+, in the absence of Sa- and Nm-, was significantly more prevalent in children with ARI (p = 0.03), or clinical pneumonia (p<0.001) than non-ARI, and in children with clinical pneumonia (p = 0.0007) than URTI. Furthermore, Sp+, Hi+, and Mc+ differentiated children with pneumonia with normal CXR, or endpoint pneumonia, from those with URTI, and non-ARI cases.ConclusionsConcurrent NP carriage of Sp, Hi, and Mc was a predictor of clinical pneumonia and identified children with pneumonia with normal CXR and endpoint pneumonia from those with febrile URTI, or non-ARI episodes.

Background Health-workers in developing countries rely on clinical algorithms, such as the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI), for the management of patients, including diagnosis of serious bacterial infections (SBI). The diagnostic accuracy of IMCI in detecting children with SBI is unknown. Prediction rules and guidelines for SBI from well-resourced countries at outpatient level may help to improve current guidelines; however, their diagnostic performance has not been evaluated in resource-limited countries, where clinical conditions, access to care, and diagnostic capacity differ. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of existing prediction rules and clinical guidelines in identifying children with SBI in a cohort of febrile children attending outpatient health facilities in Tanzania. Methods Structured literature review to identify available prediction rules and guidelines aimed at detecting SBI and retrospective, external validation on a dataset containing 1005 febrile Tanzanian children with acute infections. The reference standard, SBI, was established based on rigorous clinical and microbiological criteria. Results Four prediction rules and five guidelines, including IMCI, could be validated. All examined rules and guidelines had insufficient diagnostic accuracy for ruling-in or ruling-out SBI with positive and negative likelihood ratios ranging from 1.04–1.87 to 0.47–0.92, respectively. IMCI had a sensitivity of 36.7% (95% CI 29.4–44.6%) at a specificity of 70.3% (67.1–73.4%). Rules that use a combination of clinical and laboratory testing had better performance compared to rules and guidelines using only clinical and or laboratory elements. Conclusions Currently applied guidelines for managing children with febrile illness have insufficient diagnostic accuracy in detecting children with SBI. Revised clinical algorithms including simple point-of-care tests with improved accuracy for detecting SBI targeting in tropical resource-poor settings are needed. They should undergo careful external validation against clinical outcome before implementation, given the inherent limitations of gold standards for SBI. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4371-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

No abstract