No abstract

Pré cis: Using both clinically informed and machine learning approaches, we developed a prediction model for chronic wound healing that can form the basis for quality measurement. Objective: Chronic wounds represent a highly prevalent but little recognized condition with substantial implications for patients and payers. While better wound care products and treatment modalities are known to improve healing rates, they are inconsistently used in real-world practice. Predicting healing rates of chronic wounds and comparing to actual rates could be used to detect and reward better quality of care. We developed a prediction model for chronic wound healing. Approach: We analyzed electronic medical records (EMRs) for 620,356 chronic wounds of various etiologies in 261,398 patients from 532 wound care clinics in the United States. Patient-level and wound-level parameters influencing wound healing were identified from prior research and clinician input. Logistic regression and classification tree models to predict the probability of wound healing within 12 weeks were developed using a random sample of 70% of the wounds and validated in the remaining data. Results: A total of 365,659 (58.9%) wounds were healed by week 12. The logistic and classification tree models predicted healing with an area under the curve of 0.712 and 0.717, respectively. Wound-level characteristics, such as location, area, depth, and etiology, were more powerful predictors than patient demographics and comorbidities. Innovation: The probability of wound healing can be predicted with reasonable accuracy in real-world data from EMRs. Conclusion: The resulting severity adjustment model can become the basis for applications like quality measure development, research into clinical practice and performance-based payment.

The authors sent questionnaires to 127 apnea monitoring programs asking whether they had treated patients whose apnea appeared to have been induced by a parent (Munchausen syndrome by proxy-apnea, or MBPA). Fifty-one programs (40%) reported 54 cases of this kind from among their 20,090 monitored patients (0.27%). The authors obtained further information on 32 of these patients, 83% of whom presented with infantile apnea before the third month of life. Although medical problems were documented, including apnea, the clinical condition of these infants was inconsistent with the multiple life-threatening episodes typically reported by parents. Twenty-one of the infants reportedly received cardiopulmonary resuscitation at home, 15 had ambulance calls to the home, and 24 were rehospitalized. Child Protective Service agencies were consulted for 12 patients, 5 of whom were placed in foster homes. Three index infants and five siblings are known to be dead, and one additional infant is severely brain damaged from abuse.