Background and objectivePatients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a high 30-day hospital readmission rate, which has a large impact on the health care system and patients’ quality of life. The use of a prediction model to quantify a patient’s risk of readmission may assist in directing interventions to patients who will benefit most. The objective of this study was to calculate the rate of 30-day readmissions and evaluate the accuracy of the LACE index (length of stay, acuity of admission, co-morbidities, and emergency department visits within the last 6 months) for 30-day readmissions in a general hospital population of COPD patients.MethodsAll patients admitted with a principal diagnosis of COPD to Liverpool Hospital, a tertiary hospital in Sydney, Australia, between 2006 and 2016 were included in the study. A LACE index score was calculated for each patient and assessed using receiver operator characteristic curves.ResultsDuring the study period, 2,662 patients had 5,979 hospitalizations for COPD. Four percent of patients died in hospital and 25% were readmitted within 30 days; 56% of all 30-day readmissions were again due to COPD. The most common reasons for readmission, following COPD, were heart failure, pneumonia, and chest pain. The LACE index had moderate discriminative ability to predict 30-day readmission (C-statistic =0.63).ConclusionThe 30-day hospital readmission rate was 25% following hospitalization for COPD in an Australian tertiary hospital and as such comparable to international published rates. The LACE index only had moderate discriminative ability to predict 30-day readmission in patients hospitalized for COPD.

Background and objectiveHospital readmissions within 30 days are used as an indicator of quality of hospital care. We aimed to evaluate the ability of the LACE (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Comorbidities based on Charlson comorbidity score and number of Emergency visits in the last 6 months) index to predict the risk of 30-day readmissions in patients hospitalised for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study a LACE index score was calculated for patients with a principal diagnosis of CAP admitted to a tertiary hospital in Sydney, Australia. The predictive ability of the LACE score for 30-day readmissions was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curves with C-statistic.ResultsOf 3996 patients admitted to hospital for CAP at least once, 8.0% (n=327) died in hospital and 14.6% (n=584) were readmitted within 30 days. 17.8% (113 of 636) of all 30-day readmissions were again due to CAP, followed by readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure and chest pain. The LACE index had moderate discriminative ability to predict 30-day readmission (C-statistic=0.6395) but performed poorly for the prediction of 30-day readmissions due to CAP (C-statistic=0.5760).ConclusionsThe ability of the LACE index to predict all-cause 30-day hospital readmissions is comparable to more complex pneumonia-specific indices with moderate discrimination. For the prediction of 30-day readmissions due to CAP, the performance of the LACE index and modified risk prediction models using readily available variables (sex, age, specific comorbidities, after-hours, weekend, winter or summer admission) is insufficient.