Objectives We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. Methods We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65?-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the ''counterfactual method'' to evaluate the climate change 123Environ Health Prev Med (2014) 19:56-63 DOI 10.1007 impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation. Results We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050. Conclusions Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.

Background: Hypouricemia, conventionally defined as a serum uric acid level of ≤2 mg/dl, is considered a biochemical disorder with no clinical significance. However, individuals with renal hypouricemia have a high risk of urolithiasis and exercise-induced acute kidney injury, both of which are risk factors for reduced kidney function. Methods: To test the hypothesis that individuals with hypouricemia would be at a higher risk of reduced kidney function, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study using data from the Specific Health Checkups and Guidance System in Japan. Logistic analysis was used to examine the relationship between hypouricemia and reduced kidney function, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m². Results: Among 90,710 men (mean age, 63.8 years) and 136,935 women (63.7 years), 193 (0.2%) and 540 (0.4%) were identified as having hypouricemia, respectively. The prevalence of hypouricemia decreased with age in women (p for trend <0.001), but not in men (p for trend = 0.24). Hypouricemia was associated with reduced kidney function in men (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.74), but not in women (0.61; 0.43-0.86), relative to the reference category (i.e., serum uric acid levels of 4.1-5.0 mg/dl) after adjusting for age, drinking, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and history of renal failure. Sensitivity analyses stratified by diabetic status yielded similar results. Conclusions: This study is the first to provide evidence that hypouricemia is associated with reduced kidney function in men. Further research will be needed to determine the long-term prognosis of individuals with hypouricemia.

BackgroundAlthough lifestyle factors such as cigarette smoking, excessive drinking, obesity, low or no exercise, and unhealthy dietary habits have each been associated with inadequate sleep, little is known about their combined effect. The aim of this study was to quantify the overall impact of lifestyle-related factors on non-restorative sleep in the general Japanese population.Methods and FindingsA cross-sectional study of 243,767 participants (men, 39.8%) was performed using the Specific Health Check and Guidance System in Japan. A healthy lifestyle score was calculated by adding up the number of low-risk lifestyle factors for each participant. Low risk was defined as (1) not smoking, (2) body mass index<25 kg/m2, (3) moderate or less alcohol consumption, (4) regular exercise, and (5) better eating patterns. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between the score and the prevalence of non-restorative sleep, which was determined from questionnaire responses. Among 97,062 men (mean age, 63.9 years) and 146,705 women (mean age, 63.7 years), 18,678 (19.2%) and 38,539 (26.3%) reported non-restorative sleep, respectively. The prevalence of non-restorative sleep decreased with age for both sexes. Compared to participants with a healthy lifestyle score of 5 (most healthy), those with a score of 0 (least healthy) had a higher prevalence of non-restorative sleep (odds ratio, 1.59 [95% confidence interval, 1.29–1.97] for men and 2.88 [1.74–4.76] for women), independently of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease. The main limitation of the study was the cross-sectional design, which limited causal inferences for the identified associations.ConclusionsA combination of several unhealthy lifestyle factors was associated with non-restorative sleep among the general Japanese population. Further studies are needed to establish whether general lifestyle modification improves restorative sleep.

The 21-gene signature is validated as a good predictor of recurrence for lymph node-negative/positive, hormone receptor-positive, early-stage breast cancer in Japanese patient population. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of two scenarios designed to include the assay into Japan's social health insurance benefit package: one for LN-, ER+, ESBC and another for LN-/+, ER+, ESBC. An economic decision tree and Markov model under Japan's health system from the societal perspective is constructed with new evidence from the Japanese validation study. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are estimated as ¥384,828 (US$3,848) per QALY for the indication for LN- scenario and ¥568,533 (US$5,685) per QALY for the indication for LN-/+ scenario. Both are not more than the suggested social willingness-to-pay for one QALY gain from an innovative medical intervention in Japan, ¥5,000,000/QALY (US$50,000/QALY). Sensitivity analyses show that this result is plausibly robust, since ICERs do not exceed the threshold by various changes of assumptions made and values employed. In conclusion, the inclusion of the assay in Japan's social health insurance benefit package for not only LN- diseases but also LN+ diseases is cost-effective. Such a decision can be justifiable as an efficient use of finite resources for health care.

The 21-gene reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay with a patented algorithm is validated as a good predictor of prognosis and potential benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy for lymph-node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive, early-stage breast cancer, while its high cost raises concern about how to finance it. Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing prevalent National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline/St Gallen recommendation-guided treatment with the assay-guided treatment is carried out with budget impact estimation in the context of Japan's health care system. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are estimated as 2,997,495 yen/QALY (26,065 US$/QALY) in the comparison between NCCN guided-treatment vs. the assay-guided treatment, and as 1,239,055 yen/QALY (10,774 US$/QALY) in the comparison between St Gallen guided-treatment vs. the assay-guided treatment. Budget impact is estimated as yen2,638 million (US$23 million) to yen3,225 million (US$28 million) per year. The routine use of the assay is indicated as cost-effective. And the budget impact could be judged as within fundable level.