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A vállalatok külföldi befektetési stratégiájának kialakításakor fontos szempont a kockázati tényezők elemzése, melynek során az országkockázat számszerűsítése kiemelt jelentőségű feladat. Ugyanazért a befektetésért magasabb hozamot várnak el a befektetők a kockázatosabb orszá-gokban, mint a kevésbé kockázatos térségekben. A szuverén kockázatot mérő indikátorok és az országkockázati pontozás (rating) egyaránt információt nyújtanak az adott ország kockázati kilátásairól, de a módszertan és az alkalmazhatóság feltételei eltérőek. Cikkünkben hármas célkitűzést fogalmazunk meg. Elsőként bemutatjuk a legelterjedtebb országkockázat-mérési módszereket, majd rávilágítunk az országkockázat és a szuverén kockázat közötti különbségekre. Elemzésünk az IHS Global Insight (GI) oszágkockázatot mérő pontrendszerének és az ötéves szuverén credit default swap (CDS) spreadeknek az összehasonlításán alapszik. Statisztikai eszközökkel keressük a kapcsolatot a GI score és az ötéves szuverén CDS-ek között. Az ország-kockázat mérése mellett fontos azon eszközök vizsgálata, amelyek hozzájárulnak a kitettségből fakadó kockázatok csökkentéséhez. Cikkünk zárófejezetében átfogó elemzést adunk a politikai kockázati biztosítás piacának termékeiről, a szektort jellemző legújabb tendenciákról. ÖSSZEFOGLALÓ SUMMARYThe economic outlook for the future is greatly influenced by long-term corporate investments, where risk indicators are essential inputs for current business decisions. Due to country risk, companies should demand higher returns in some countries, for the same investments, than in others. Sovereign risk and country risk ratings also provide information about the country risk, but the methods are different. The paper has three objectives. The first is to analyse the most common alternatives to measure country risk. The second is to examine the relationship between country risk and sovereign risk, thereafter compare the stability of the two measures. The analysis is based on the IHS Global Insight (GI) score and five-year sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, where we analyse the relationship also between the CDS and GI ratings with statistical tools. Beside measurement it has a key importance how country risk exposure could be mitigated, in which insurance might play crucial role. Finally in our analysis we present the current trends in country and political risk insurance market.
The ring‐opening reactions are first investigated for the methyl α‐D‐glucopyranosides (I).
The economic outlook for the future is greatly influenced by long-term corporate investments, where risk indicators are essential inputs for current business decisions. Due to country risk, companies should demand higher returns in some countries, for the same investments, than in others. Sovereign risk and country risk ratings also provide information about the country risk, but the methods are different. The paper has two objectives. The first is to introduce the most common alternatives to measure country risk. The second is to examine the relationship between country risk and sovereign risk, than compare the stability of the two measures. The analysis is based on the IHS Global Insight (GI) score and five-year sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads.
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