A new approach to define heavy and extreme rainfall events based on cluster analysis and area-average rainfall series is presented. The annual frequency of the heavy and extreme rainfall events is obtained for the southeastern and southern Brazil regions. In the 1960-2004 period, 510 (98) and 466 (77) heavy (extreme) rainfall events are identified in the two regions. Monthly distributions of the events closely follow the monthly climatological rainfall in the two regions. In both regions, annual heavy and extreme rainfall event frequencies present increasing trends in the 45-yr period. However, only in southern Brazil is the trend statistically significant. Although longer time series are necessary to ensure the existence of long-term trends, the positive trends are somewhat alarming since they indicate that climate changes, in terms of rainfall regimes, are possibly under way in Brazil.

The dynamical and synoptic characteristics that distinguish heavy rainfall episodes from nonheavy rainfall episodes in southern Brazil are discussed. A heavy rainfall episode is defined here as one in which the 50 mm day-' isohyet encloses an area of not less than [0 000 km 2 in the domain of southern Brazil. One hundred and seventy such events are identified in the 11-yr period'of 1991-2001. The mean flow patterns in the period of 1-3 days preceding the episodes show some striking synoptic-scale features that may be considered forerunners of these episodes: (i) a deepening midtropospheric trough in the eastern South Pacific approaches the continent 3 days before, (ii) a surface low,pressure center forms in northern Argentina 1 day before, (iii) a northerly low-level jet develops over Paraguay 2 days before, and (iv) a strong moisture flux convergence over southern Brazil becomes prominent 1 day before the episode. A parameter called rainfall quantity, defined as the product .of the area enclosed by the 50 mm day-' isohyet and the average rainfall intensity, is,correlated with fields of atmospheric variables such as 500-hPa geopotential and 850-hPa meridional winds. Significant lag correlations show that the anomalies of some atmospheric variables could be viewed as precursors of heavy rainfall in southern Brazil that can be explored for use in improving the forecasts.

The southern region of Brazil is potentially favorable the occurrence of extreme events, where these are due to different weather systems that operate in South America. Therefore various techniques have been exposed to improve the accuracy thereof, a characteristic what is present in many of them is the presence of troughs in the 500 hPa level. The present study aims to evaluate the vertical movement of two severe storm events that hit southern Brazil in the fall of 2013, one on 26 March and another on May 29, where both of them occurred from the same system type, but with different inclinations of the horizontal axis of the higher level trough of the atmosphere. For this were used data from the monthly compilation of significant cases of CPTEC / INPE for the choice of severe instability events. For the preparation of meteorological fields to be evaluated were reanalysis data used MERRA. This study showed that omega vertical upward movement was much more intense when related to the system associated with the negatively-trough (about 1.2 m s-1) while the upward movement associated with the positive-trough was around 0.5 m s-1.

Abstract. The horizontal and vertical structure of unusually warm and dry spells (WDS) over the central parts of South America during the winter and post-winter months (JJAS) are studied. During WDS the mean temperature and humidity anomalies over central Brazil are about +4.1 • C and −13.2%, respectively. The mean duration of WDS is 11 days and their mean frequency is less than one per year during the months of JJAS. Apparently, WDS have no preference for the phase of ENSO. Widespread and persistent subsidence in the middle troposphere is observed in tropical Brazil during WDS, which renders the lower tropospheric air warm and dry. The negative anomalies of the specific humidity are observed to be associated with the subsidence regions. A strong, slow moving ridge in the eastern South Pacific and a low-pressure center in northern Argentina are important surface characteristics during the WDS. A more detailed investigation of two specific WDS events, a strong event (August-September 1999) and a moderate one (June 2002), shows a blockinglike situation in the 500-hPa geopotential and surface pressure fields in the Pacific. The South Atlantic subtropical high somewhat approaches the continent. Strong northerlies over the central and eastern parts of Brazil are also observed in the lower troposphere. During WDS the regional circulation acquires summertime characteristics, except for the absence of precipitation, and the circulation in the meridional plane is in the opposite sense from the Hadley circulation. A frontal system, supported by a 500-hPa trough, advances into central Brazil, causing the dissipation of the anomalous situation.

The differences between the regional flow characteristics of a rainy episode and a nonrainy episode in March 2006 in eastern São Paulo state are discussed. The surface humidity and temperature characteristics do not show significant differences between the two cases. The composites of the middle tropospheric geopotential field and the lower-tropospheric wind field show a short-wave trough in the Atlantic off southern Brazil during the rainy episode. In the upper troposphere, the Bolivian high is stronger during the rainy episode than during the nonrainy episode, indicating that the troposphere over tropical South America is warmer during the rainy episode. The low-level jet in the rainy case does not penetrate northern Argentina, and is more NW-SE oriented, indicating that the humidity transport is more toward the southeastern Brazil. The moisture flux convergence over the eastern São Paulo at the 850-hPa is fairly strong in the rainy case whereas it is divergent in the nonrainy case. The presence of a low pressure area in the South Atlantic with westward tilt in the vertical provides synoptic forcing for the rising motion over eastern São Paulo state. These differences seem to be useful indicators for distinguishing rainy and nonrainy episodes.