The article analyzes the dynamics of the development of the electromobility sector in Poland in the context of the European Union and due to the economic situation and development of the electromobility sector in the contexts of Switzerland and Norway. On the basis of obtained data, a forecast was made which foresees the most likely outlook of the electric car market in the coming years. The forecast was made using the creeping trend method, and extended up to 2030. As part of the analysis of the effect of the impact of electromobility, an original method was proposed for calculating the primary energy factor (PEF) primary energy ratio in the European Union and in its individual countries, which illustrates the conversion efficiency of primary energy into electricity and the overall efficiency of the power system. The original method was also verified, referring to the methods proposed by the Fraunhofer-Institut. On the basis of all previous actions and analyses, an assessment was made of the impact of the development of the electromobility sector on air quality in the countries studied. Carbon dioxide tank-to-wheels emission reductions which result from the conversion of the car fleet from conventional vehicles to electric motors were then calculated. In addition to reducing carbon dioxide emissions, other pollutant emissions were also calculated, such as carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). The increase in the demand for electricity resulting from the needs of electric vehicles was also estimated. On this basis, and also on the basis of previously calculated primary energy coefficients, the emission reduction values have been adjusted for additional emissions resulting from the generation of electricity in power plants.

The creep trend method is used for the analysis of the development of electric car production in three regions: The United States, the European Union and Japan. Based on vehicle registration and population growth data for each year the creep trend method using historical data for the years 2007–2017 is applied for forecasting development up to 2030. Moreover, the original method for calculating the primary energy factor (PEF) was applied to the analysis of power engineering systems in the regions investigated. The assessment of the effects of electromobility development on air quality has been performed, reduction values for pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions have been determined, which was the main objective of this manuscript. Mitigation of air pollutant emissions, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) was estimated and compared to the eventual expected increase of emissions from power plants due to an increase of the demand for electricity. It can be concluded that electricity powered cars along with appropriate choices of energetic resources as well as electricity distribution management will play the important role to achieve the sustainable energy economy. Based on the emission reduction projections resulting from the projected increase in the number of electric cars, (corrected) emissions will be avoided in 2030 in the amount of over 14,908,000 thousand tonnes CO2 in European Union, 3,786,000 thousand tonnes CO2 in United States and 111,683 thousand tonnes CO2 in Japan.