The purpose of this work is to identify variables that are relevant to the copper price setting in the international market. Thus statistical hypothesis tests and statistical tools that help to identify historical relevance and to measure the intensity of the impact of each variable on the copper price on several time horizons were applied. At the end, a regression model that aims to assess the combined effect of the considered time series was estimated. The global industrial production and the aluminum price showed the greatest evidences of being relevant to the copper price. The results suggest that copper stocks, foreign exchange rates and crude oil price should also be considered.
RESUMO:O presente trabalho tem por propósito identificar variáveis relevantes no processo de formação do preço do cobre no mercado internacional. Assim, foram realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses e outros procedimentos estatísticos para verificar a relevância histórica e a intensidade do impacto de variáveis selecionadas no preço do cobre. Dentre essas variáveis, a produção industrial global e o preço do alumínio no mercado internacional apresentaram as maiores evidências da relevância para a formação do preço do cobre no mercado internacional. Além disso, os resultados obtidos sugerem que as variáveis estoques de cobre, taxa de câmbio e preço do petróleo também devem ser consideradas. As informações utilizadas nesta pesquisa foram de dados mensais no período de janeiro de 2009 até dezembro de 2015.
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