Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets.

In this study, we analyse the aggregated transaction networks of Ether (the native cryptocurrency in Ethereum) and the three most market-capitalised ERC-20 tokens in this platform at the time of writing: Binance, USDT, and Chainlink. We analyse a comprehensive dataset from 2015 to 2020 (encompassing 87,780,546 nodes and 856,207,725 transactions) to understand the mechanism that drives their growth. In a seminal analysis, Kondor et al. (PLoS ONE, 2014, 9: e86197) showed that during its first year, the aggregated Bitcoin transaction network grew following linear preferential attachment. For the Ethereum-based cryptoassets, we find that they present in general super-linear preferential attachment, i.e., the probability for a node to receive a new incoming link is proportional to kα, where k is the node’s degree. Specifically, we find an exponent α = 1.2 for Binance and Chainlink, for Ether α = 1.1, and for USDT α = 1.05. These results reveal that few nodes become hubs rapidly. We then analyse wealth and degree correlation between tokens since many nodes are active simultaneously in different networks. We conclude that, similarly to what happens in Bitcoin, “the rich indeed get richer” in Ethereum and related tokens as well, with wealth much more concentrated than in-degree and out-degree.

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin transaction volume.

Opinion polls mediated through a social network can give us, in addition to usual demographics data like age, gender and geographic location, a friendship structure between voters and the temporal dynamics of their activity during the voting process. Using a Facebook application we collected friendship relationships, demographics and votes of over ten thousand users on the referendum on the definition of marriage in Croatia held on 1 st of December 2013. We also collected data on online news articles mentioning our application. Publication of these articles align closely with large peaks of voting activity, indicating that these external events have a crucial influence in engaging the voters. Also, existence of strongly connected friendship communities where majority of users vote during short time period, and the fact that majority of users in general tend to friend users that voted the same suggest that peer influence also has its role in engaging the voters. As we are not able to track activity of our users at all times, and we do not know their motivations for expressing their votes through our application, the question is whether we can infer peer and external influence using friendship network of users and the times of their voting. We propose a new method for estimation of magnitude of peer and external influence in friendship network and demonstrate its validity on both simulated and actual data.