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Uncertainty Analysis of Primary Resource Savings at Cogeneration The article provides the uncertainty analysis for electricity and heat energy production measurements at a cogeneration plant. It is analysed how the uncertainty in the input data affects the uncertainty in the data on primary resource savings. In the work, the standard uncertainties have been estimated for both data sets. The uncertainty budget is defined for determination of the primary energy resource savings.

Abstract. This work explores a probabilistic modeling workflow and its implementation targeting CO2 generation rate and CO2 source location by the occurrence of carbonate–clay reactions (CCRs) in three-dimensional realistic sedimentary basins. We ground our study on the methodology proposed for a one-dimensional case study and a single CCR formulation by Ceriotti et al. (2017) which includes a framework to account for thermodynamic parameter uncertainties. This methodology is here extended to a realistic three-dimensional sedimentary basin setting and transferred to encompass different types of CCRs, including two newly formulated CCRs which account for minerals typically observed in sedimentary environments. While testing the ability of the selected procedure to model diverse CCRs in three-dimensional realistic subsurface sedimentary systems, we quantitatively compare the impact of CCR formulation on the spatial distribution of CO2 source location, temperature and pressure compatible with CO2 gaseous generation, and CO2 generation rate in three-dimensional environments characterized by complex and non-uniform stratigraphy. The application of the procedure to various types of CCRs enables us to provide an insight into the impact of mineralogical composition on the activation temperature and pressure and the amount of CO2 released by the different CCR mechanisms. Finally, we show the implementation of the proposed probabilistic framework to define scenarios associated with various levels of probability to be used as the input and boundary conditions for CO2 migration and transport models in the subsurface.

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3D Petroleum System Modeling Study has been developed by using the Eni E&P Division internal package (e-simba™) in order to evaluate the petroleum potential of the Pearl River Mouth Basin, in the South China Sea. Pearl River Mouth Basin is a Mesozoic-Cenozoic passive margin rift basin oriented NE-SW and parallel to the continental shelf. Within the Basin two main source rocks are recognised in the syn-rift succession: the organic levels of the Enping Formation, Oligocene in age and mainly terrestrial, and those of the Wenchang/Enping Formation, Oligocene/Eocene in age and mainly lacustrine. Based on geochemical analysis of well data, the Enping source rock is modelled by using terrestrial kerogen type, TOC 1%, HI 250 mgHC/gTOC, 100 m of thickness and kinetics from analogue of Mahakam Delta. The Wenchang/Enping source rock is modelled by using lacustrine kerogen type, TOC 4%, HI 600 mgHC/gTOC, 100 m of thickness and kinetics from analogue of Green River. Thermal data coming from wells and confirmed by literature suggest an average geothermal gradient of 35°C/km. The heat flow values at Present time match with well data. The creation of heat flow map was done by using a geostatistical approach, kriging with external drift method - software ISATIS, and by considering the correlation between the calibrated heat flow value at single well and the geological trend. Over the study area the heat flow trend correlates both with seismic and magnetic basement. The results of thermal model integrated with geochemical well data (CO2 and gas maturity) show that the heating better correlates with seismic basement and allow to define the positioning of the organic matter level. A terrestrial source rock can be located in the shallower part of the Eocene/Oligocene sequence while a lacustrine one can be localised in the depocentral area at the base of the same sequence.