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In Mediterranean agropastoral areas, land abandonment is a key driver of wildfire risk as fuel load and continuity increase. To gain insights into the potential impacts of land abandonment on wildfire risk in fire-prone areas, a fire-spread modeling approach to evaluate the variations in wildfire potential induced by different spatial patterns and percentages of land abandonment was applied. The study was carried out in a 1200 km2 agropastoral area located in north-western Sardinia (Italy) mostly covered by herbaceous fuels. We compared nine land abandonment scenarios, which consisted of the control conditions (NA) and eight scenarios obtained by combining four intensity levels (10, 20, 30, 40%) and two spatial patterns of agropastoral land abandonment. The abandonment scenarios hypothesized a variation in dead fuel load and fuel depth within abandoned polygons with respect to the control conditions. For each abandonment scenario, wildfire hazard and likelihood at the landscape scale was assessed by simulating over 17,000 wildfire seasons using the minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm. Wildfire simulations replicated the weather conditions associated with the largest fires observed in the study area and were run at 40 m resolution, consistent with the input files. Our results highlighted that growing amounts of land abandonment substantially increased burn probability, high flame length probability and fire size at the landscape level. Considering a given percentage of abandonment, the two spatial patterns of abandonment generated spatial variations in wildfire hazard and likelihood, but at the landscape scale the average values were not significantly different. The average annual area burned increased from about 2400 ha of the control conditions to about 3100 ha with 40% land abandonment. The findings of this work demonstrate that a progressive abandonment of agropastoral lands can lead to severe modifications in potential wildfire spread and behavior in Mediterranean areas, thus promoting the likelihood of large and fast-spreading events. Wildfire spread modeling approaches allow us to estimate the potential risks posed by future wildfires to rural communities, ecosystems and anthropic values in the context of land abandonment, and to adopt and optimize smart prevention and planning strategies to mitigate these threats.

A spatially explicit approach for stand-scale economic valuation of current and future potential of cork forests with respect to ecosystem production is developed and presented. The approach, which relies in large part on the mensuration of stand top height and number of trees as main drivers, has been tested on the pure cork forests of Sardinia (Italy). The test was conducted to assess the effects of alternative silvicultural options on cork and fodder production, carbon sequestration, and water yield. Under current conditions, the surveyed pure cork oak forest stands in Sardinia are characterized, on average, by an annual economic production of 93 euro ha -1 yr -1 as concerns cork, 37 euro ha -1 yr -1 as concerns carbon sequestration and 261 euro ha -1 yr -1 as concerns water yield. The value of cork production on an 11-year cycle equals 1023 euro ha -1 on average. The total economic production values among the tested silvicultural alternatives have proven to be characterized by relatively small differences, due to the trade-offs among the considered goods and services. Therefore, at least under conditions similar to those surveyed, managers may safely rely on different stand density options, without any relevant detrimental effect on total economic production. The tested spatial visualization of the economic values of goods and services production can be useful in supporting forest management planning, e.g., to identify priority areas in order to maximize ecosystem production for local communities. The approach proposed here and tested to this end proves to be readily applicable to other cork contexts with similar characteristics under Mediterranean conditions.

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