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Juan Sergio LopezFedercasse, Rome
March 2015Abstract This paper uses data from a panel of more than 400 Italian banks for the period 2001 -2012 to examine the main determinants of loan loss provision (LLP), which are classified as either discretionary (income smoothing, capital management, signalling) or non-discretionary (related to the business cycle). The results suggest that LLP in Italian banks is driven mainly by non-discretionary components, especially during the recession of 2008-2012, and is consistent with a countercyclical behavior of LLP. Further, it is generally less pro-cyclical (although not during the recent economic crisis) in the case of local banks: since their loans are more collateralised, their behaviour is more strongly affected by supervisory activity, their initial coverage ratio being lower than for other banks.
JEL classification: G21, G28
A panel of Italian banks for the period 2006-2012 is used in this paper to examine LLP main determinants. Our analysis also focuses on the determinants of the sub-components of LLP, i.e. provisions associated to Bad Loans and Impaired Loans and Bad Loans and Impaired Loans Coverage Ratio. A specific analysis for cooperative credit banks is provided. We find that Loan Loss provisioning for Italian banks seems to be driven principally by non-discretionary behavior. Economic fluctuations, according to our results, do not play a significant role, nor do signaling and income smoothing. Provisioning strategies for cooperative credit banks also seem to be affected by collateralized loans.
This paper uses data from a panel of more than 400 Italian banks for the period 2001 -2012 to examine the main determinants of loan loss provision (LLP), which are classified as either discretionary (income smoothing, capital management, signalling) or non-discretionary (related to the business cycle). The results suggest that LLP in Italian banks is driven mainly by non-discretionary components, especially during the recession of 2008-2012, and is consistent with a countercyclical behavior of LLP. Further, it is generally less pro-cyclical (although not during the recent economic crisis) in the case of local banks: since their loans are more collateralised, their behaviour is more strongly affected by supervisory activity, their initial coverage ratio being lower than for other banks.
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