Coherently addressing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals requires planning tools that guide policy makers. Given the integrative nature of the SDGs, we believe that integrative modelling techniques are especially useful for this purpose. In this paper, we present and demonstrate the use of the new System Dynamics based iSDG family of models. We use a national model for Tanzania to analyse impacts of substantial investments in photovoltaic capacity. Our focus is on the impacts on three SDGs: SDG 3 on healthy lives and well-being, SDG 4 on education, and SDG 7 on energy. In our simulations, the investments in photovoltaics positively affect life expectancy, years of schooling and access to electricity. More importantly, the progress on these dimensions synergizes and leads to broader system-wide impacts. While this one national example illustrates the anticipated impact of an intervention in one specific area on several SDGs, the iSDG model can be used to support similar analyses for policies related to all the 17 SDGs, both individually and concurrently. We believe that integrated models such as the iSDG model can bring interlinks to the forefront and facilitate a shift to a discussion on development grounded in systems thinking.
SignificanceThe sustainable development goals (SDGs) offer the global community a compelling vision and universally agreed-upon framework to achieve a sustainable and equitable future—but present a costly undertaking in the short term. Our research suggests that synergetic effects arising from appropriately designed policy mixes can bring significant cost savings and improve SDG attainment. Identifying and quantifying synergies requires innovative and unorthodox approaches to policy analysis such as those operationalized in our 3 pilots. The synergy assessment method and typology introduced in this paper are widely applicable, even though the patterns of synergies vary considerably between countries. Our pilot studies focus on national policy for the SDGs. Our approach is nevertheless generalizable to integrated planning at other scales and time horizons.
International migration flows are continuously growing, and an estimated 3% of the world's population lives today away from their country of origin. The social, economic and environmental impacts of these massive movements are significant in the context of global, regional, and national development. Migration interacts with key development issues through the displacement of human and financial resources that are central to development. Such interactions are highly complex, and a quantitative modelling approach is necessary to support the design of national and regional migration policies that are coherent with development objectives and plans. We propose a resource-based approach to analyze migration-related development issues, based on a synthesis of theory and evidence from different fields, which we implement with the System Dynamics (SD) method. The study highlights the dynamic interaction between migration and development, and the inherent elements of complexity that make managing such phenomenon particularly difficult. An extended policy analysis is carried out for two virtual countries-one industrialized and one developing-and general policy insights are derived. In order to support the mainstreaming of migration in the development agenda, our migration model can be dynamically linked to the Threshold 21 model, a broadly based tool that supports the elaboration of national and regional development plans.
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