Abstract. This article reviews the current debate on whether U.S. agricultural productivity growth is slowing. It also assesses recent research on how productivity is related to long-term investment in research and development (R&D). It describes significant changes taking place in the U.S. agricultural research system, including the growing role of private agribusiness as a main developer of new agricultural technologies and what this implies for agricultural science policy. The conclusion has suggestions for future research on these issues.
Keywords.Intellectual property rights, private R&D, research crowding out, returns to research, technical change, total factor productivity JEL Classifications. Q16, O3
IntroductionAgricultural economics research on sources of growth in U.S. agriculture agrees on two salient points: (1) nearly all growth in output over the past 70 years has come from productivity rather than factor accumulation, and (2) public investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) is responsible for a dominant share of that productivity improvement (Alston and Pardey, 1996;Alston et al., 2010;Gardner, 2002;Huffman and Evenson, 1993;Ruttan, 2002; The views expressed in this article are the authors' own and should not be attributed to the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the Economic Research Service.* Corresponding author's e-mail: kfuglie@ers.usda.gov Productivity and R&D 515 Wang et al., 2015). There is less consensus, however, on a number of material issues. One is the pattern of U.S. agricultural productivity growth over time-in particular, whether it has slowed recently. A second and related question is, to what extent does future productivity growth depend on raising spending levels for public agricultural R&D? Other (potential) sources of new innovations for agriculture include nonagricultural sciences, foreign or international institutions, the business sector, and farmers themselves. Each of these players' relative contributions may shift over time. In particular, R&D by agricultural input industries (providing seeds, chemicals, machinery, etc.) has grown considerably since the 1980s. Market forces and government policies influence the amount and direction of overall societal investment in agricultural innovation, and understanding the role of prices, policies, and interactions among research funders and performers carries considerable significance for the future direction of agricultural technology development and productivity growth. The purpose of this article is to provide a review of recent research on trends and developments in aggregate agricultural growth and the role of policy in influencing that growth, with a focus on the United States. Although the data seem to indicate a clear decline in the rate of growth in real agricultural output, it is less clear whether that decline is the result of a contraction in total factors of production or a slowdown in the rate of productivity growth of those factors. We review trends in U.S. agricultural total factor productivity (...