Emerging application areas such as air pollution in megacities, wind energy, urban security, and operation of unmanned aerial vehicles have intensified scientific and societal interest in mountain meteorology. To address scientific needs and help improve the prediction of mountain weather, the U.S. Department of Defense has funded a research effort—the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) Program—that draws the expertise of a multidisciplinary, multi-institutional, and multinational group of researchers. The program has four principal thrusts, encompassing modeling, experimental, technology, and parameterization components, directed at diagnosing model deficiencies and critical knowledge gaps, conducting experimental studies, and developing tools for model improvements. The access to the Granite Mountain Atmospheric Sciences Testbed of the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, as well as to a suite of conventional and novel high-end airborne and surface measurement platforms, has provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate phenomena of time scales from a few seconds to a few days, covering spatial extents of tens of kilometers down to millimeters. This article provides an overview of the MATERHORN and a glimpse at its initial findings. Orographic forcing creates a multitude of time-dependent submesoscale phenomena that contribute to the variability of mountain weather at mesoscale. The nexus of predictions by mesoscale model ensembles and observations are described, identifying opportunities for further improvements in mountain weather forecasting.

The second Meteor Crater Experiment (METCRAX II) was conducted in October 2013 at Arizona’s Meteor Crater. The experiment was designed to investigate nighttime downslope windstorm−type flows that form regularly above the inner southwest sidewall of the 1.2-km diameter crater as a southwesterly mesoscale katabatic flow cascades over the crater rim. The objective of METCRAX II is to determine the causes of these strong, intermittent, and turbulent inflows that bring warm-air intrusions into the southwest part of the crater. This article provides an overview of the scientific goals of the experiment; summarizes the measurements, the crater topography, and the synoptic meteorology of the study period; and presents initial analysis results.

The topography in and around the Intermountain West strongly affects the genesis, migration, and lysis of extratropical cyclones. Here intermountain (i.e., Nevada or Great Basin) cyclone (IC) activity and evolution are examined using the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1989 to 2008, the period during which all three are available. The ICs are defined and tracked objectively as 850-hPa geopotential height depressions of $40 m that persist for $12 h.The monthly distribution of IC center and genesis frequency in all three reanalyses is bimodal with spring (absolute) and fall (secondary) maxima. Although the results are sensitive to differences in resolution, topographic representation, and reanalysis methodology, both the ERA-Interim and NARR produce frequent IC centers and genesis in the Great Basin cyclone region, which extends from the southern ''high'' Sierra to northwest Utah, and the Canyonlands cyclone region, which lies over the upper Colorado River basin of southeast Utah. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fails to resolve these two distinct cyclone regions and produces less frequent IC centers and genesis than the ERA-Interim and NARR.An ERA-Interim-based composite of strong ICs generated in cross-Sierra (2108-3008) 500-hPa flow shows that cyclogenesis is preceded by the development of the Great Basin confluence zone (GBCZ), a regional airstream boundary that extends downstream from the Sierra Nevada across the Intermountain West. Cyclogenesis occurs along the GBCZ as large-scale ascent develops over the Intermountain West in advance of an approaching upper-level trough. Flow splitting around the high Sierra and the presence of low-level baroclinicity along the GBCZ suggest that IC evolution may be better conceptualized from a potential vorticity perspective than from traditional quasigeostrophic models of lee cyclogenesis. Although these results provide new insights into IC activity and evolution, analysis uncertainty and the cyclone identification criteria are important sources of ambiguity that cannot be fully eliminated.

Large temperature fluctuations (LTFs), defined as a drop of the near-surface temperature of at least 3°C in less than 30 min followed by a recovery of at least half of the initial drop, were frequently observed during the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) program. Temperature time series at over 100 surface stations were examined in an automated fashion to identify and characterize LTFs. LTFs occur almost exclusively at night and at locations elevated 50–100 m above the basin floors, such as the east slope of the isolated Granite Mountain (GM). Temperature drops associated with LTFs were as large as 13°C and were typically greatest at heights of 4–10 m AGL. Observations and numerical simulations suggest that LTFs are the result of complex flow interactions of stably stratified flow with a mountain barrier and a leeside cold-air pool (CAP). An orographic wake forms over GM when stably stratified southwesterly nocturnal flow impinges on GM and is blocked at low levels. Warm crest-level air descends in the lee of the barrier, and the generation of baroclinic vorticity leads to periodic development of a vertically oriented vortex. Changes in the strength or location of the wake and vortex cause a displacement of the horizontal temperature gradient along the slope associated with the CAP edge, resulting in LTFs. This mechanism explains the low frequency of LTFs on the west slope of GM as well as the preference for LTFs to occur at higher elevations later at night, as the CAP depth increases.

Winter storms are disruptive to society and the economy, and they often cause significant injuries and deaths. Innovations in winter storm forecasting have occurred across the value chain over the past two decades, from physical understanding, to observations, to model forecasts, to post-processing, to forecaster knowledge and interpretation, to products and services, and ultimately to decision support. These innovations enable more accurate and consistent forecasts, which are increasingly being translated into actionable information for decision makers. This paper reviews the current state of winter storm forecasting in the context of the U.S. National Weather Service operations and describes a potential future state. Given predictability limitations, a key challenge of winter storm forecasting has been characterizing uncertainty and communicating the forecast in ways that are understandable and useful to decision makers. To address this challenge, particular focus is placed on establishing a probabilistic framework, with probabilistic hazard information serving as a foundation for winter storm decision support services. The framework is guided by social science research to ensure effective communication of risk to meet users’ needs. Solutions to gaps impeding progress in winter storm forecasting are highlighted, including better understanding of mesoscale phenomenon, the need for better ensemble calibration, a rigorous and consistent database of observed impacts, and linking multi-parameter probabilities (e.g., probability of intense snowfall rates at rush hour) with users’ information needs and decisions.