BackgroundThe Covid-19 pandemic has become a global public health crisis and providing optimal patient care while preventing a collapse of the health care system is a principal objective worldwide.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a prognostic model based on routine hematological parameters to predict uncomplicated disease progression to support the decision for an earlier discharge.DesignDevelopment and refinement of a multivariable logistic regression model with subsequent external validation. The time course of several hematological variables until four days after admission were used as predictors. Variables were first selected based on subject matter knowledge; their number was further reduced using likelihood ratio-based backward elimination in random bootstrap samples.SettingModel development based on three Austrian hospitals, validation cohorts from two Austrian and one Swedish hospital.ParticipantsModel development based on 363 survivors and 78 non-survivors of Covid-19 hospitalized in Austria. External validation based on 492 survivors and 61 non-survivors hospitalized in Austria and Sweden.OutcomeIn-hospital death.Main ResultsThe final model includes age, fever upon admission, parameters derived from C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, platelet count and creatinine concentration, approximating their baseline values (CRP, creatinine) and change over time (CRP, platelet count). In Austrian validation cohorts both discrimination and calibration of this model were good, with c indices of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 - 0.96) in a cohort from Vienna and 0.93 (0.88 - 0.98) in one from Linz. The model performance seems independent of how long symptoms persisted before admission. In a small Swedish validation cohort, the model performance was poorer (p = 0.008) compared with Austrian cohorts with a c index of 0.77 (0.67 - 0.88), potentially due to substantial differences in patient demographics and clinical routine.ConclusionsHere we describe a formula, requiring only variables routinely acquired in hospitals, which allows to estimate death probabilities of hospitalized patients with Covid-19. The model could be used as a decision support for earlier discharge of low-risk patients to reduce the burden on the health care system. The model could further be used to monitor whether patients should be admitted to hospital in countries with health care systems with emphasis on outpatient care (e.g. Sweden).

Purpose. We report the development of a lung abscess caused by a ciprofloxacin-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a patient with COVID-19 on long-term corticosteroid therapy. Successful antimicrobial treatment included the novel oral fluoroquinolone delafloxacin suggesting an oral administration option for ciprofloxacin-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung abscess. Case Presentation. An 86-year-old male was admitted to the hospital with fever, dry cough, and fatigue. PCR testing from a nasopharyngeal swab confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. An initial CT scan of the chest showed COVID-19 typical peripheral ground-glass opacities of both lungs. The patient required supplemental oxygen, and anti-inflammatory treatment with corticosteroids was initiated. After four weeks of corticosteroid therapy, the follow-up CT scan of the chest suddenly showed a new cavernous formation in the right lower lung lobe. The patient’s condition deteriorated requiring high-flow oxygen support. Consequently, the patient was transferred to the intensive care unit. Empiric therapy with intravenous piperacillin/tazobactam was started. Mycobacterial and fungal infections were excluded, while all sputum samples revealed cultural growth of P. aeruginosa. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing showed resistance to meropenem, imipenem, ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, and tobramycin. After two weeks of treatment with intravenous piperacillin/tazobactam, the clinical condition improved significantly, and supplemental oxygen could be stopped. Subsequently antimicrobial treatment was switched to oral delafloxacin facilitating an outpatient management. Conclusion. Our case demonstrates that long-term corticosteroid administration in severe COVID-19 can result in severe bacterial coinfections including P. aeruginosa lung abscess. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of a P. aeruginosa lung abscess whose successful therapy included oral delafloxacin. This is important because real-life data for the novel drug delafloxacin are scarce, and fluoroquinolones are the only reliable oral treatment option for P. aeruginosa infection. Even more importantly, our case suggests an oral therapy option for P. aeruginosa lung abscess in case of resistance to ciprofloxacin, the most widely used fluoroquinolone in P. aeruginosa infection.