Legislative staff link Members of Congress and their constituents,
theoretically facilitating democratic representation. Yet, little
research has examined whether Congressional staff actually recognize
the preferences of their Members’ constituents. Using an original
survey of senior US Congressional staffers, we show that staff
systematically mis-estimate constituent opinions. We then evaluate
the sources of these misperceptions, using observational analyses
and two survey experiments. Staffers who rely more heavily on
conservative and business interest groups for policy information
have more skewed perceptions of constituent opinion. Egocentric
biases also shape staff perceptions. Our findings complicate
assumptions that Congress represents constituent opinion, and help
to explain why Congress often appears so unresponsive to ordinary
citizens. We conclude that scholars should focus more closely on
legislative aides as key actors in the policymaking process, both in
the United States and across other advanced democracies.
As climate change intensifies, global publics will experience more unusual weather and extreme weather events. How will individual experiences with these weather trends shape climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors? In this article, we review 73 papers that have studied the relationship between climate change experiences and public opinion. Overall, we find mixed evidence that weather shapes climate opinions. Although there is some support for a weak effect of local temperature and extreme weather events on climate opinion, the heterogeneity of independent variables, dependent variables, study populations, and research designs complicate systematic comparison. To advance research on this critical topic, we suggest that future studies pay careful attention to differences between self-reported and objective weather data, causal identification, and the presence of spatial autocorrelation in weather and climate data. Refining research designs and methods in future studies will help us understand the discrepancies in results, and allow better detection of effects, which have important practical implications for climate communication. As the global population increasingly experiences weather conditions outside the range of historical experience, researchers, communicators, and policymakers need to understand how these experiences shape-and are shaped by-public opinions and behaviors.
When political action entails individual costs but group-contingent benefits, political participation may depend on an individual’s perceptions of others’ beliefs; yet detailed empirical attention to these second-order beliefs – beliefs about the beliefs of others – remains rare. We offer the first comprehensive examination of the distribution and content of second-order climate beliefs in the United States and China, drawing from six new opinion surveys of mass publics, political elites and intellectual elites. We demonstrate that all classes of political actors have second-order beliefs characterized by egocentric bias and global underestimation of pro-climate positions. We then demonstrate experimentally that individual support for pro-climate policies increases after respondents update their second-order beliefs. We conclude that scholars should focus more closely on second-order beliefs as a key factor shaping climate policy inaction and that scholars can use the climate case to extend their understanding of second-order beliefs more broadly.
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