The concerted effort to collect earthquake damage data in Italy over the past 30 years has led to the development of an extensive database from which vulnerability predictions for the Italian building stock can be derived. A methodology to derive empirical vulnerability curves with the aforementioned data is presented herein and the resulting curves have been directly compared with mechanics-based vulnerability curves. However, it has been found that a valid comparison between the empirical and analytical vulnerability curves is not possible mainly due to a number of shortcomings in the database of surveyed buildings. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in deriving vulnerability curves from the current observed damage database is thus also presented.

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National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.

The aim of this paper is to disseminate knowledge in the seismic science community about a possible tool which is not largely popular, despite its potential usefulness. In this paper it will be shown how satellite remotely sensed images may represent a powerful source of information where traditional sources of information are unable to deliver it, or at least to do so timely. Even when traditional information flow can ensure delivery, an advantage may still be found in terms of sooner availability and smaller amount of labour required. In the case shown here a vulnerability study was made on a vast industrial area in the gulf of Siracusa, Sicily, Italy. A series of concurrent factors made it particularly troublesome to obtain information on the structures found in the site (tanks, pipes, chimneys, roads, …), required to suitably carry out the study. Satellite images were then acquired to obtain the information needed. Processing of the images was carried out relying on in-house software formerly developed for similar information extraction issues, and integrated with new, specifically developed elements, some pieces of information were obtained useful for seismic risk evaluation. In particular, location, footprint, elevation of significant structures (e.g. tanks, chimneys) could be evaluated, obtaining results in a format compatible with the most widespread GIS (Geographic Information System) standards. Such compatibility allowed a considerable savings on labour time required to lay a GIS of the area, which is a fundamental tool for risk and vulnerability analyses.

The Department of Civil Protection (DPC), in compliance with the EU decision 1313/2013 and at the request of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 to update the disaster risk assessments by various countries, released the latest National Risk Assessment for Italy at the end of 2018. Specifically, as regards the seismic risk assessment, six research units belonging to two centres of competence of the DPC collaborated under its guidance to update the risk maps of the Italian residential heritage. This extensive collaboration complied with the recent Italian code for Civil Protection, which requires a broad scientific consensus for risk assessment. During this research activity, six fragility models were developed, according to some common criteria (four for masonry buildings and two for RC buildings). These models were then implemented by the DPC for the definition of the national seismic risk. Within this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the risk results provided by these models, compare their features, and assess and validate their prediction capabilities. In particular, this paper shows the comparison of predicted and observed damage scenarios and consequences on building stock and the population of two seismic events, i.e. L’Aquila 2009 and Amatrice 2016. Furthermore, the paper provides some interesting damage and risk predictions at a national level. Overall, the forecasts and comparisons made in this study demonstrate the validity of the approach adopted by the DPC for the assessment of national seismic risk.