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In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people's preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. Beyond the subsequent challenges and opportunities identified in this work, the scenarios developed may be a useful basis for individual actors of distinct backgrounds to build their own specific futures, supporting them in defining strategies for the future.

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In its 2011 Transport Policy White Paper, the European Commission introduced ten targets to be met in order to reach a more competitive and resource efficient transport system. The following dual goal focused on urban transport and commuting: "To halve the use of 'conventionally-fuelled' cars in urban transport by 2030; and to phase them out by 2050; and to achieve "essentially CO 2 -free city logistics in major urban centres by 2030." The question driving the research behind this paper is how to realise this dual urban transport goal for 2030, taking into consideration existing trends, available policy options, the diverse interests of stakeholders involved in urban mobility in Europe. The paper draws on data gathered in the EU FP7 TRANSFORuM project, including workshop dialogues with stakeholders representing different interests in and perspectives on urban transport and mobility. The main result is a roadmap that proposes a broad strategy to answer the question "Who has to do what, by when" to achieve the urban transport goal. The roadmap includes detailed proposals for action and milestones at different levels of decision making. This paper will describe the process of consultations and the outcomes of the roadmap process and will also discuss the perspectives for implementation.