In observational studies, type-2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), yet interventional trials have shown no clear effect of glucose-lowering on CHD. Confounding may have therefore influenced these observational estimates. Here we use Mendelian randomization to obtain unconfounded estimates of the influence of T2D and fasting glucose (FG) on CHD risk. Using multiple genetic variants associated with T2D and FG, we find that risk of T2D increases CHD risk (odds ratio (OR)=1.11 (1.05–1.17), per unit increase in odds of T2D, P=8.8 × 10−5; using data from 34,840/114,981 T2D cases/controls and 63,746/130,681 CHD cases/controls). FG in non-diabetic individuals tends to increase CHD risk (OR=1.15 (1.00–1.32), per mmol·per l, P=0.05; 133,010 non-diabetic individuals and 63,746/130,681 CHD cases/controls). These findings provide evidence supporting a causal relationship between T2D and CHD and suggest that long-term trials may be required to discern the effects of T2D therapies on CHD risk.

The genomics era has led to an increase in the dimensionality of data collected in the investigation of biological questions. In this context, dimension-reduction techniques can be used to summarise high-dimensional signals into low-dimensional ones, to further test for association with one or more covariates of interest. This paper revisits one such approach, previously known as principal component of heritability and renamed here as principal component of explained variance (PCEV). As its name suggests, the PCEV seeks a linear combination of outcomes in an optimal manner, by maximising the proportion of variance explained by one or several covariates of interest. By construction, this method optimises power; however, due to its computational complexity, it has unfortunately received little attention in the past. Here, we propose a general analytical PCEV framework that builds on the assets of the original method, i.e. conceptually simple and free of tuning parameters. Moreover, our framework extends the range of applications of the original procedure by providing a computationally simple strategy for high-dimensional outcomes, along with exact and asymptotic testing procedures that drastically reduce its computational cost. We investigate the merits of the PCEV using an extensive set of simulations. Furthermore, the use of the PCEV approach is illustrated using three examples taken from the fields of epigenetics and brain imaging.

In this paper, we consider some potential pitfalls of the growing use of quasi-likelihood-based information criteria for longitudinal data to select a working correlation structure in a generalized estimating equation framework. In particular, we examine settings where the fully conditional mean does not equal the marginal mean as well as hypothesis testing following selection of the working correlation matrix. Our results suggest that the use of any information criterion for selection of the working correlation matrix is inappropriate when the conditional mean model assumption is violated. We also find that type I error differs from the nominal level in moderate sample sizes following selection of the form of the working correlation but improves as sample size is increased as the selection is then concentrated on a single correlation structure. Our results serve to underline the potential dangers that can arise when using information criteria to select correlation structure in routine data analysis.