Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modeling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modeling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem responses to perturbations, while only requiring qualitative information about social-ecological interactions and events and providing more general predictions due to their validity for wide ranges of parameter values. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modeling framework based on “if-then” rules generating non-deterministic dynamics. Based on expert knowledge, observations, and literature, we use EDEN to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups have highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modeling.

Model-checking is a methodology developed in computer science to automatically assess the dynamics of discrete systems, by checking if a system modelled as a state-transition graph satisfies a dynamical property written as a temporal logic formula. The dynamics of ecosystems have been drawn as state-transition graphs for more than a century, from state-and-transition models to assembly graphs. Thus, model-checking can provide insights into both empirical data and theoretical models, as long as they sum up into state-transition graphs. While model-checking proved to be a valuable tool in systems biology, it remains largely underused in ecology. Here we promote the adoption of the model-checking toolbox in ecology through its application to an illustrative example. We assessed the dynamics of a vegetation model inspired from state-and-transition models by model-checking Computation Tree Logic formulas built from a proposed catalogue of patterns. Model-checking encompasses a wide range of concepts and available software, mentioned in discussion, thus its implementation can be fitted to the specific features of the described system. In addition to the automated analysis of ecological state-transition graphs, we believe that defining ecological concepts with temporal logics could help clarifying and comparing them.Author summaryEcologists have drawn state-transition graphs representing the dynamics of ecosystems for more than a century. Model-checking is an automated method for the analysis of such graphs developed in computer science and acknowledged by a Turing award in 2007. Ecologists appear to be mostly unaware of model-checking despite its successes in systems biology to assess the dynamics of biological networks.We promote model-checking of ecological state-transition graphs through its application to an illustrative vegetation model. We exemplify the insights provided by model-checking by assessing management policies aiming to tackle savanna encroachment. We also provide a catalogue of patterns to help ecologists with the difficulty of formally expressing dynamical properties. We also discuss the wide range of model-checking concepts and available software, enabling to fit the specific features of the studied system, such as durations or probabilities.Model-checking can be applied to both empirical data and theoretical models, as long as they sum up into state-transition graphs. It provides automated and accurate answers to complex questions that could barely be analysed through human examination, if not impossible to answer this way. In addition to the automated analysis of ecological state-transition graphs, we believe that formally defining ecological concepts within the model-checking framework could help in clarifying and comparing them.

Model-checking is a methodology developed in computer science to automatically assess the dynamics of discrete systems, by checking if a system modelled as a state-transition graph satisfies a dynamical property written as a temporal logic formula. The dynamics of ecosystems have been drawn as state-transition graphs for more than a century, ranging from state-and-transition models to assembly graphs. Model-checking can provide insights into both empirical data and theoretical models, as long as they sum up into state-transition graphs. While model-checking proved to be a valuable tool in systems biology, it remains largely underused in ecology apart from precursory applications. This article proposes to address this situation, through an inventory of existing ecological STGs and an accessible presentation of the model-checking methodology. This overview is illustrated by the application of model-checking to assess the dynamics of a vegetation pathways model. We select management scenarios by model-checking Computation Tree Logic formulas representing management goals and built from a proposed catalogue of patterns. In discussion, we sketch bridges between existing studies in ecology and available model-checking frameworks. In addition to the automated analysis of ecological state-transition graphs, we believe that defining ecological concepts with temporal logics could help clarify and compare them.